Drawing to 1-outer

[mxp2004]

This hand comes from a 2/5 NL game. Player A has about $750 behind, and Player B has about $900.

Player A has 44, and Player B has AK.

The board on the turn is A K 4 A. Player B pushes. Player A knows he's been outdrawn, but the casino offers a Bad Beat Jackpot that stands at $102,000. Does player A have to call from an EV standpoint?

[jay_shark]

If a casino rewards the bad beat jackpot in this scenario , then you would need to know how much player A would receive if he's outdrawn . Also , you would need to know how many players are at the table and how much they would receive from the bad beat .

You also didn't include the current pot size and your effective stacks which is important to know .

[PocketRuler]

It really depends on how the casino strucutures the bad beat payout, but it's not likely worth it. Absolute's bad beat structure works so that 65% of the jackpot goes to the bad beat table with the rest going to seed a new jackpot. Of that 65%, the 'winner' of the pot gets 25% with the majority of the jackpot going to the person who got beat. Therefore, player A would win $16575 ($102000 x 0.65 x 0.25) if the jackpot were to occur; however, this is a unlikely occurance as a one outer is 2.3%. Therefore, the expected value for winning the jackpot is $381 ($16575 x 0.023), significantly less than the $750 player A is risking. Definately negative EV.

[mxp2004]

[ QUOTE ]
If a casino rewards the bad beat jackpot in this scenario , then you would need to know how much player A would receive if he's outdrawn . Also , you would need to know how many players are at the table and how much they would receive from the bad beat .

You also didn't include the current pot size and your effective stacks which is important to know .

[/ QUOTE ]

I think there was around $800 in the pot after Player B pushes. I also believe that the payout was 50% to pot loser, 25% to pot winner, and balance to remainder of table.

So I guess that the math here works out to -EV for Player A.

Would everyone really let math alone drive this decision? Or do people feel that, regardless of the math, Player A won't be in this situation often enough over his lifetime to make up for all the times that he will miss his draw? In other words, should you ever adjust an EV calculation to take into account the likelihood that the circumstance will repeat itself often enough?

And while we're at it, here's a couple more questions: was Player B an idiot to push in this situation? Knowing that he has a qualifying hand for the jackpot, wasn't his optimal play to make sure Player A stays in the hand to showdown?

[PocketRuler]

[ QUOTE ]

Would everyone really let math alone drive this decision? Or do people feel that, regardless of the math, Player A won't be in this situation often enough over his lifetime to make up for all the times that he will miss his draw? In other words, should you ever adjust an EV calculation to take into account the likelihood that the circumstance will repeat itself often enough?


[/ QUOTE ]

In this situation, I would let the math make the decision. If I wanted long-shot odds with the opportunity to make lots of money, I'd play the lottery. But that's just me.

[ QUOTE ]

And while we're at it, here's a couple more questions: was Player B an idiot to push in this situation? Knowing that he has a qualifying hand for the jackpot, wasn't his optimal play to make sure Player A stays in the hand to showdown?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, Player B is an idiot if he knew what Player A has; however, if he knows Player A is going to call with the worst of it, then he's a genius.

[DarkMagus]

You need to state the question more clearly. Are the effective stacks $750 BEFORE there's $800 in the turn, or is that in addition to the $400 each that they put in the pot? I will assume the latter.

From a strictly EV standpoint the equation is

(1/44)*(1550+x) - (43/44)*750 = 0

where x is the amount that player A wins if he hits his 1 outer. Solving for x gives me $30700. So player A needs to win at least $30700 from the jackpot in order to make this a +EV call. Assuming that Player A gets 25% of 70% of the jackpot, then he needs the jackpot to be at least $175000 to make this a breakeven call.

If you meant the other way around, and that the players STARTED the hand with $750 effective, and player A is only calling $350 on the turn, that changes things a lot.

(1/44)*(1150+x) - (43/44)*(350) = 0

Solving for x gives $13,900. Now player A calls profitably if the BBJ is at least $79,400.

[mxp2004]

[ QUOTE ]
You need to state the question more clearly. Are the effective stacks $750 BEFORE there's $800 in the turn, or is that in addition to the $400 each that they put in the pot? I will assume the latter.

From a strictly EV standpoint the equation is

(1/44)*(1550+x) - (43/44)*750 = 0

where x is the amount that player A wins if he hits his 1 outer. Solving for x gives me $30700. So player A needs to win at least $30700 from the jackpot in order to make this a +EV call. Assuming that Player A gets 25% of 70% of the jackpot, then he needs the jackpot to be at least $175000 to make this a breakeven call.

If you meant the other way around, and that the players STARTED the hand with $750 effective, and player A is only calling $350 on the turn, that changes things a lot.

(1/44)*(1150+x) - (43/44)*(350) = 0

Solving for x gives $13,900. Now player A calls profitably if the BBJ is at least $79,400.

[/ QUOTE ]

The stacks were their preflop stacks.

There was $30 in the pot before the flop. On the flop, Player B bet $30, and Player A smooth called with his set (pot now $90). That left Player A with about $710 behind, taking into account the preflop betting. Player B pushed the turn, and since he had Player A covered, it was effectively a $710 bet, making the total pot $800.

I know this sounds like a ridiculous betting sequence, but hey, welcome to 2/5 NL in Atlantic City on a Saturday night.