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Old 06-12-2006, 06:19 AM
firedrop firedrop is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2006
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Default What is probability of winning a \"JACKPOT\" on last table of a freeroll

The probability of winning the "jackpot" in a freeroll

# The opportunity to win the Jackpot commences when the
first hand is dealt at the final table of ten players. The opportunity to win the Jackpot ends after the final hand is dealt at the final table
# The player must use both his/her hole cards to make the Royal Flush
# The hand must go to a showdown
# The 'Royal Flush' must be of hearts
# The Prize can only be won by a player who is playing on the 3rd Payout level
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Old 06-12-2006, 01:05 PM
AaronBrown AaronBrown is offline
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Location: New York
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Default Re: What is probability of winning a \"JACKPOT\" on last table of a freeroll

I can give you some help.

1 hand in 132.6 you will get two cards to a heart royal flush.
1 board in 1,960 will complete your royal flush.

If you always call but never raise with two hole cards to a heart royal flush (until a royal flush becomes impossible), you can almost guarantee that the hand will go to showdown. I don't know what the 3rd payout level is.

So the maximum chance of winning the jackpot on one hand is 1 in 132.6*1,960 = 259,896.

If the final table lasts 200 hands with an average of 6 players and everyone tries to maximize the chance of winning the jackpot, the chance that someone will win is about 1 in 200.
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