Money line vs Spread in low spread games

RikkiDee · #1 10-04-2007, 04:40 PM

Noob sports betting question here.

Has anyone ever looked at the net payout results of betting on the spread vs money lines when comparing NFL games with low spreads? (3 or under)

For example, this weeks game; Chicago @ GB. Currently at wsex the line is GB -3 -125, CHI + 3 +105, with the money line on GB at -180 and Chi at +160.

Historically do the 3 points really make enough difference to outweigh the pretty substantial difference in money line payouts? How often is CHI going to be covering the spread but not win the game outright? Does that difference make up the 55% increase in payout?

Seems to me if you are betting on CHI to cover it would make more sense to just bet them to win the game outright on the money line.

TomCowley · #2 10-04-2007, 05:12 PM

These lines are basically equivalent. The game lands on GB-3 is about 10%, and GB - 1/2 combined about 4%. Evaluating the spread bet with a true line of GB -115, the game will land on GB-3 10% of the time, GB will cover 48.1% of the time, and CHI will cover 41.9% of the time. If you translate this to the ML, you lose when GB covers (48.1%), GB wins by 3 (10%), GB wins by 1-2 (4%), for a total of 62.1, meaning you win 37.9%. 37.9% converted to ML is +164 (and the "true" ML given by the line is +170).

SonnyJay · #3 10-04-2007, 05:17 PM

3 points is the most common margin of victory in football games. It's a very important number to pick up, thus the big payout difference despite the "small number" of points.

thelyingthief · #4 10-04-2007, 06:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The game lands on GB-3 is about 10%, and GB - 1/2 combined about 4%.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm a little confused about your post: the game pushes ~14.3%, not 10%, at least, by the data i have, it does; the remaining material is a fine puzzle.

so...maybe you could try that again?

TomCowley · #5 10-04-2007, 07:13 PM

the 3 is about 10%, the 1 and the 2 combined are about 4%.

Sevenfold · #6 10-04-2007, 07:52 PM

Betting the money line will make you more $$ in the long run, even on higher spread games.

PropPlayer · #7 10-04-2007, 08:20 PM

I got just under 10% and just under 3% with my new database and 11.88% and 3.7% with my old one. Man I knew this [censored] was off but did not realize how much. I need to get it fixed.