Runline at Colorado

[hedgie43]

I assumed the books take the altitude factor into account but has anyone analyzed whether or not there is value in laying runs at Coors Field? Scores are higher and thus games fewer games should be 1 run wins. Tomorrow, for example, both the Dodgers and Cubs are -115 at the Greek to win tomorrow and laying the 1.5 run. However, the Dodgers are +140 on the runline and the Cubs are +145. At first glance, this slight difference doesn't seem enough to cover the difference and if you get the 5 cent overnight line on 5 Dimes, it could be profitable. But then first glance is not how to bet, which is why I'm wondering if anyone has crunched the numbers for the altitude difference.

[Homer]

I read something the other day about games with higher ou's having a greater chance of ending in a 1-run margin of victory. It seems counterintuitive...I'll see if I can find the link.

[hedgie43]

I'd be interested to read that Homer. Maybe something to do with the fact that it is more likely to be high scoring if both teams are scoring lots of runs instead of just one team scoring 6 and the other team scoring 0 or 1?

[Moneyline]

Is scoring in Coors Field still significantly higher than league average? I haven't looked at Park Effects data from last year (or this year for that matter), but last year the Rockies began storing balls in humidifiers before gametime. This supposedly deadened the balls and lessened the effect of altitude significantly. I do not know if the Rockies still engage in this practice.

[hedgie43]

I'll do the numbers for last year but so far in this year's extremely small sample size with tons of variables like different teams, pitchers and weather, Rockies games are averaging 10.4 runs per game at home with 20% coming within 1 run and 6.4 games per game on the road with 56% decided by one run or less.

[KUJustin]

Coors Field run factors:
2002 +44%
2003 +24%
2004 +41%
2005 +29%
2006 +15%

[KUJustin]

Also the ball humidor was instituted in 2002, not last year.