overpair facing flop shove (live hand)

[CuttinBait]

Live hand in a home game 1/1/NL, villain is very loose and aggressive preflop and tricky postflop and likes to mix it up. I've seen him call down with middle pair and make moves with air. Also seen him play good hands fast. Hero has been playing tight and continuation betting most of the time. Hero went from $100 down to $30 and gradually built it up to $320.

7 handed,
hero (sb) $320
villain (button) $153

3 limps including villain to hero with 10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
hero raises to $10, everyone calls

Flop(pot = $50) 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero bets $40
3 folds to villain who goes all in for $143 total.

Hero???

[TexAg06]

I don't see how you can call this. Villain has a wide range from getting 4:1 on his preflop call. From your description villain sounds like a good player, I'd probably fold and try to get the money back at a better spot. What happened in the actual hand?

[JeffOkinawa]

Seems to me there are a few possibilities:

1. A set
2. An overpair better than yours that he was trapping with preflop
3. A big draw (45c, AXc, or pair + flush draw)
4. An overpair worse than yours (unlikely, I think)
5. Air (you said he does this)

It might be some kind of goofy two pair, too, but I think that (and options 4 and 5) are unlikely here. He knows you have a hand, and he's pushed back. This seems like overs with a flush draw to me if he's laggy and aggressive, but even that you're not in great shape against.

Anyway, of his range, you're only in good shape against a very few hands like 99, and those are the least likely hands. I fold this.

[74o_Clownsuit]

Meh. It's super marginal and because it's live, it depends alot on how he plays multiway pots, how he views you, and how badly his FPS is.

Assuming this range:

Board: 2c 7c 3h

Hand 0: 58.643% 58.64% 00.00% 153270 0.00 { TT }
Hand 1: 41.357% 41.36% 00.00% 108090 0.00 { 99-77, 33-22, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, 6c5c, 54s, 54o }
It seems like a standard call (remember pot odds make it an easier call too) albeit a very variance-intensive one.

However keep this in mind:

1. You said you have a TAG image
2. The flop is FIVE-way
3. You raise oop preflop and then lead into 4 players.

Your hand looks pretty damn strong in a vacuum and 90% of the time you should respect ANYONE who raises you in this spot. This is weighed against:

1. He likes to make "moves" with air (his limping range has to be ridiculously wide in this pot)
2. He's likely to be fancy and "put you on overs", thinking he can steal the pot.

So the answer lies inbetween those considerations.

Would he repop you here ai with a draw or a hand like 88 or 99? Maybe, maybe not? Or would he just fold when you show signs of strength?

[CuttinBait]

I ended up thinking for a while and calling. I'm getting 2.3:1 and while a set is certainly possible since many people would play 22, 33, 77 this way preflop, I don't think he would play a set this way on the flop. This player would most likely call and let me bet out the turn and raise AI. I also decided he did not have an overpair to mine since he would almost definitely rereraise preflop with AA or KK and probably also with QQ JJ. 88, 99 are definite possibilities as are two high clubs.

anywaysssssss.

He turns over 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] which holds up on a turn Q and a river 9.

Even if I knew he had the 2 pair I am still 29% to win.

Combine this with the 2.3:1 pot odds I was getting and the possibility he was playing 88, 99, A7 or air this way and I am pretty sure my call was right.