10/20 My nuts go bad and the turn is 3-bet

[BagOfCoins]

At the CNE in Toronto.

The play has been very loose in general. There is a mix of several very poor, no-fold'em players plus two or three good, solid players.

I am in middle position and there are two villains in this story: an old man on my left who plays tightly and only bets when he is very confident, and a young man in the big blind whom I have little read on.

There's one limper ahead of me, and I limp in with QJo. Four players call behind, the SB completes and the BB checks for a total of eight players seeing the flop.

The flop is AhKcTh, giving me the nut straight. It is checked to me, and I bet. Five players call.

The turn is the Td. The BB now bets, I raise, and the old man on my left reraises. The BB calls and the action is back to me.

Question one: What is my play here? Do I call, planning to check/call the river or fold knowing that my straight is almost surely beat?

Say I call. The turn is now the Kd and the BB bets again.

Question two: Would it be sane to consider calling in the face of the two-paired board?

[Scarmiglio]

QJo isn't worth a call in MP - fold preflop. Nitty old men 3-betting the turn usually have the goods. If I'd only seen him make this move before with a big hand I would want to fold, but would probably call down if the board doesn't get uglier. When the K hits on the river, you're definitely beat against 2 players. Muck it.

[cowboy billy]

it’s going to be HIGHLY unlikely that old man is 3-betting anything LESS than the same hand as yours, which means we’d be getting just under 6.75:2 odds in a chop

BB probably has a T, so even if he isn’t already full, we still have 10 outs to dodge, further decreasing our EV

then again, we could very well be already drawing dead to a full house, which would be disastrous

I’d say this stove is pretty accurate
Board: Ah Kc Th Td

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 22.188% 00.00% 22.19% 0 123456.00 { QJo }
Hand 1: 63.384% 40.46% 22.93% 225120 127560.00 { ATs, KTs, QJs, ATo, KTo, QJo }
Hand 2: 14.428% 13.59% 00.84% 75600 4680.00 { QTs, JTs, T2s+, QTo, JTo, T2o+ }

this means we have to pay 2 bb to win a little under 3 bb

I don’t have to see a river here, I’m folding turn

I’d fold preflop as well

[LukeSLTS]

This is an easy fold given your read on the old man. He doesn't have the same hand as you because he would raise the flop, he definitely has KT or AT and was scared that someone hit the straight on the flop.

[cgrohman]

"There's one limper ahead of me, and I limp in with QJo"

Barf.

I'd be surpirsed if the old man didn't raise your flop bet with 2 pair. Thus, you should still be good. I call but hate it. Yes, it would be insane to call the river with a board of xKK1010 without a great read.

[BagOfCoins]

Thanks for the analysis. I wasn't happy about it, but I ended up folding on the turn.

I'm sure you're all correct that my big error was getting involved with QJo out of position.

[cgrohman]

I don't mind raising QJ there depending on the line-up, but calling is bad.

[Fnord]

Pre-flop is fine.

Call turn, fold river.

[Captain R]

Preflop bad, I call turn and river and expect to lose, but what the heck...

obv. AKKTT is an easy river muck.

[SNOWBALL]

If BB wants to play KT that slow, more power to him. Limper behind you has a T, maybe QT or JT or 9T. I'm capping the turn.

As played, I'm folding this river.


EDIT: OMFG my reading comprehension sucks. I thought old man was BB. This is definitely definitely not a cap. Just call down and then fold river.