Easy Fold with Two Pair in 3bet Pot

[jk3a]

Villain is 23/19/inf. through 150 hands. We've played a few small pots together, but no significant history. Fwiw, he bet the turn very quickly.

Poker Stars, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

UTG: $251.05
MP: $221.60
CO: $145
Hero (BTN): $228.60
SB: $341.65
BB: $861.60

Pre-Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG folds, MP calls $2, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $10</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $32</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls $22

Flop: ($68) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $45</font>, Hero calls $45

Turn: ($158) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $152</font>

[Imrahil]

This is tough. His turn bet size is sorta confusing. Would he really pot it w/ a K? For me this looks like a FD and he's committing himself and trying to get the most FE he can by his bet size. If this wasn't my money I'd shove but playing the hand I'd fold.

[jk3a]

In retrospect, I think I should be calling here. He doesn't have to be bluffing hardly at all to make this a call.

Board: Ks Td 6s Kh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.957% 25.96% 00.00% 217 0.00 { JcJh }
Hand 1: 74.043% 74.04% 00.00% 619 0.00 { TT, AKs, AsQs, AsJs, KQs, QJs, JsTs, Ts9s, AKo }

[Imrahil]

I got this:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

23,760 games 0.005 secs 4,752,000 games/sec

Board: 6s Ks Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 19.383% 19.33% 00.06% 4592 13.50 { JcJh }
Hand 1: 80.617% 80.56% 00.06% 19141 13.50 { AKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, KQs, QsJs, 9s8s, 8s7s, AKo, KdQc, KhQc, KhQd, KsQc, KsQd, KsQh }



But I think it's just more than his range here. I think his bet sizing and timing can help determine if he ever has a K here.

[hotbacon]

not many people have the grapes to double barrel this turn in a 3b pot, though some people are flush draw bet monkeys. i would fold here, until i have a better read on the guy- he can't expect you to be folding that much on this turn.

[Michaelson]

why does neither range posted factor in QQ-AA?

[Imrahil]

[ QUOTE ]
why does neither range posted factor in QQ-AA?

[/ QUOTE ]

No one ever plays quads like this and I don't think he's going crazy w/ QQ here. And I don't think AA plays this was either, especially making such a large bet on the turn like that.

[Michaelson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why does neither range posted factor in QQ-AA?

[/ QUOTE ]

No one ever plays quads like this and I don't think he's going crazy w/ QQ here. And I don't think AA plays this was either, especially making such a large bet on the turn like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree wrt quads.

[jk3a]

[ QUOTE ]
not many people have the grapes to double barrel this turn in a 3b pot, though some people are flush draw bet monkeys. i would fold here, until i have a better read on the guy- he can't expect you to be folding that much on this turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just don't think you see someone fastplay a King here all the time.

[Some9]

This is a draw a lot. Axss is prob 1/3 his range. call and hope.