tuesday mlb plays

[riccja]

Monday we were 0-1 for -1.0 units.

Today 2 plays in mlb

St Louis +127
Chicago-N: (R) ZAMBRANO, C St Louis: (R) WELLS, K

Texas under 11.5 -110
Seattle: (L) FEIERABEND, R Texas: (L) RHEINECKER, J





Good Luck

RickJ


Record to date:

MLB(07 Season)
Sides: 49-60 +7.28
O/U: 15-18-1 -3.55

mlb(06 season,started end of season)
Sides: 17- 14 +6.83
o/u 3-8-1 -5.09

WNBA
Sides: 3-1 +1.95
Total: 0-1 -1.05

ncaafb (06-07 completed)
Sides 36-27-2 +9.14
o/u 11-12 -1.63

nfl(06-07 completed)
Sides 26-10-1 +15.56
o/u 7-4 +2.83

nhl
sides 35-36 +6.66
total 4-5 -1.10

Nba
Side 78-77 -2.75
o/u 31-25 +4.98

Oct: 132 bets + 11.63 units +8.81%
Nov: 105 bets + 25.19 units +24.0%
Dec: 94 bets + 1.99 units +2.11%
Jan: 57 bets + 6.92 units +12.14%
Feb: 31 bets -6.75 units -21.77%
Mar: 40 bets -9.75 units -24.37%
April: 34 bets +3.42 units +10.06%
May: 49 bets -3.64 units -7.43%
JUne: 46 bets +14.66units +31.87%
July: 33 bets -6.10 units -18.48%
Total 619 Bets + 37.89units +6.12%

[New001]

I'm with you on the Cardinals at 10c better, and I've been eying the two games in Texas with no play yet. Tough loss last night. Good luck.

[Raiter]

not seeing why the love for Wells. The Cubs havent lost 3 in a row in 2 months (ESPN) and Zambrano is 5-0 with a 1.38 ERA in his last eight starts against the Cardinals dating to 2005.(ESPN) Plus Lee is back. Whats your reasoning? is it a hunch or have you got studies to back this up?

[whipsaw]

[ QUOTE ]
not seeing why the love for Wells. The Cubs havent lost 3 in a row in 2 months (ESPN) and Zambrano is 5-0 with a 1.38 ERA in his last eight starts against the Cardinals dating to 2005.(ESPN) Plus Lee is back. Whats your reasoning? is it a hunch or have you got studies to back this up?

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought this was the best part.

I'm not on stl today but I can see why riccja is, I think it's a solid play.

[New001]

[ QUOTE ]
not seeing why the love for Wells. The Cubs havent lost 3 in a row in 2 months (ESPN) and Zambrano is 5-0 with a 1.38 ERA in his last eight starts against the Cardinals dating to 2005.(ESPN) Plus Lee is back. Whats your reasoning? is it a hunch or have you got studies to back this up?

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you accidentally backed into good reasoning for betting STL.

[Raiter]

explain?

[sirio11]

[ QUOTE ]
explain?

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't hold your breath, people in this forum don't explain too much.

If that's all the reasoning employed ny New001 (public perception and ESPN data, it's a pretty poor one to explain why a +130 line has value.

Exactly where the value starts when ESPN release some data, at +110? +120? +140?

[craig]

[ QUOTE ]
The Cubs havent lost 3 in a row in 2 months

[/ QUOTE ]

You realize that a team losing three in a row, even if they only have a 30% change to win each game is only 34.3%. Taking any three games into isolation, like you said (and I don't doubt) ESPN said. But, what are the chances a team loses 3 in a row if they have already lost 2? If you flip a coin, what are the chances heads doesn't come up at least 1 out of 3 tries: 12.5%. But what are the chances it comes up heads after the first two weren't heads: 50%.

craig

[New001]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
explain?

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't hold your breath, people in this forum don't explain too much.

If that's all the reasoning employed ny New001 (public perception and ESPN data, it's a pretty poor one to explain why a +130 line has value.

Exactly where the value starts when ESPN release some data, at +110? +120? +140?

[/ QUOTE ]
It's not what I used when making the bet. I calculated the line to be such that +137 had value. ESPN touting the Cubs, the Cubs being a big public team, the Cardinals being godawful, Kip Wells being godawful, all of those contribute to the line being set at +137. Hope that's explained well enough.

[wheatrich]

they haven't lost 3 in a row in 2 months? This is completely irrelevant. We're talking about independent games here. Kip Wells throws one good game in forever and +127's +EV? I doubt it. (at least Stl isn't a horrible squad) If you're just betting trying to fade the public or whatever I don't like it. I think I'd need around +150 on this one but I'm not on it either way so gl.