Chinese Poker - Expectation of Royalties (Win 25$)

[cardcore]

Hi,

this is kind of a math question and math isn't my strength [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] would be nice if you give it a shot.

I'm looking for the Probability that my Opponent has (lets say its headsup) a Royalty in his 13-Card Chinese Poker Hand. I need that probability in terms of points. Lets say my actual CP Hand has an expectation of -2 (points), how much worse does the probability that he has a royalty make my hand?

We are playing 2-4 (2 for normal win, 4 for scoop) point system and following royalties:

Royal Flush: 10 points
Straight Flush: 4 points
Quads: 3 points
Full House in Middle Hand: 1 point
Trips in Front Hand: 3 points

natural royalties (instawins)
Six Pair - 6 points
Flush Flush Flush - 3 Points
Straight Straight Straight - 6 Points
13 Card Straight - 13 Points
13 Card Straight Flush - 50 Points


It doesnt have to be exact.

Thank you!
Best answer gets 25$ on PokerStars [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]