Orange's flush hand- NO FLAMING

[Casper05]

dammit people, that could have been a good thread...so Im going to continue it. If you start with the damned flame wars again, I hope a mod temp-bans you for 3 days...this is freaking poker discussion website, not some idiotic ego bloating blog.

villan is loose and semi active. only been here one orbit but he has been limping alot. he's like 40/14 over 30 hands. he doesnt seem very good and definitely active. hero has been pretty active, i just won a large pot with 22 on a AA2 board vs. a donk's turned flush.

i may appear like a station, i've been calling alot of bets. what is your turn play here?

Absolute Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $80.90
UTG+1: $986
CO: $289.93
Button: $141.14
SB: $313.85
orange: $563.95

Pre-flop: (6 players) orange is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB folds, orange checks.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($7, 3 players)
orange bets $6, UTG+1 calls, Button calls.

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($25, 3 players)
orange bets $20, UTG+1 raises to $40, Button folds, orange ...?

Anyway, I'm 3betting that turn all day versus THIS villain...We have reads that he is "loose, active, and overall bad"...

I think his range is much wider than just flushes here...raise turn to like 120ish and you can fold to a shove...he will call with EVERYTHING he raised with initially and only shove higher flushes. He'll call with sets hoping to fill up, with lower flushes because he's a donkey, and with 2pr because he aint foldin' 2-pair.

VB the river and fold to a shove....

[Keyser.]

here's the link in case it gets buried: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...=0#Post12319764

I really think 3-betting the turn isn't good here.

First you're assuming he re-raises with all higher flushes, which isn't necessarily true. He's probably just calling with any non-nut flush. If you 3-bet to $120 and he just calls, the pot's like $265 with $437 effective left behind. Are you bet/folding at that point in such a huge pot?

I'm requoting what I said earlier b/c I think it was good: :-)

[ QUOTE ]
Mainly b/c you're 200+bbs deep and so often in spots like this you end up getting it all in with 0 equity against higher flushes (ignoring that orange did have a straight flush redraw), and at the same time you fold out worse hands and only get action from smaller flushes, which I think is a smaller portion of his range. "Folding out worse hands" is a point that can be argued, but I really don't see people raise sets on the turn very often at all when the action goes like that.

With 100bbs shoving becomes better. But here, by 3-betting, you're allowing the pot to go from $25 on the turn to $1000+ on the river, and you VERY often have 0 equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Claunchy]

I disagree. FGators, despite being annoying as hell, was totally right imo. Unless you have some specific history or something that orange surely would've mentioned, this is always a flush. Only question is whether ours is higher.

PS, lock in 5..4...

[Casper05]

[ QUOTE ]
I really think 3-betting the turn isn't good here.

First you're assuming he re-raises with all higher flushes, which isn't necessarily true. He's probably just calling with any non-nut flush.

[/ QUOTE ]I agree with this, but there is SO MUCH MORE that he is calling with that (imo) is in his range that isn't just higher flushes.[ QUOTE ]
If you 3-bet to $120 and he just calls, the pot's like $265 with $437 effective left behind. Are you bet/folding at that point in such a huge pot?

[/ QUOTE ]yes, I don't see what is so bad with that...I think the bet would be very very +EV, and that calling a raise would be -EV. We can def bet 130 and confidently fold to a raise imo.

[Chicago Twister]

A loose, active & bad player probably doesn't have a set here, but he might have a turned combo, like KQ[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I'd probably call here and call a moderate river bet. But given this, it's probably best to not bet the turn.

[deaders]

I agree with casper's line and reasoning on this one.

[Chicago Twister]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I really think 3-betting the turn isn't good here.

First you're assuming he re-raises with all higher flushes, which isn't necessarily true. He's probably just calling with any non-nut flush.

[/ QUOTE ]I agree with this, but there is SO MUCH MORE that he is calling with that (imo) is in his range that isn't just higher flushes.[ QUOTE ]
If you 3-bet to $120 and he just calls, the pot's like $265 with $437 effective left behind. Are you bet/folding at that point in such a huge pot?

[/ QUOTE ]yes, I don't see what is so bad with that...I think the bet would be very very +EV, and that calling a raise would be -EV. We can def bet 130 and confidently fold to a raise imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Casper you seem to be of the opinion that Orange should bet this turn. Suppose opponent has a set. Will he call turn and river bets, or just turn?

[Casper05]

[ QUOTE ]
Casper you seem to be of the opinion that Orange should bet this turn. Suppose opponent has a set. Will he call turn and river bets, or just turn?

[/ QUOTE ] Of course we are betting this turn...there are like millions of hands to get value from. 40/14 players (yeah yeah after 30 hands- maybe he isn't really 40/14, but there is a 100% chance he is still a donkey) aren't folding sets on the turn where they can call and hope to improve...and then "LOL its the river and all I have to do is call to see a showdown!!! wheee, oh damn he has a flush, lucky bastard. Online poker is rigged."

[Keyser.]

Casper,

It's impossible to prove this either way, but I'm confident villain either has a flush or a hand less than a set on the turn like 90% of the time (meaning that he's rarely raising/calling a 3-bet with less than a flush because people like him don't seem to raise the turn with like a pair with the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], and you don't see a set often at all).

ok, that's confusing, but I'm trying to say... 3-betting usually folds out everything but flushes (feel free to argue, you might be right) and now we're left with examining how our flush holds up. Surely as the flush gets lower you should 3-bet less often, and for me, T9hh is right on the cusp of when you should just call.

When playing ridiculously deep (281bbs deep here) you are going to lose a lot of money by trying to get all-in with hands that you would try to get all-in if you had 100bbs. Protecting all these big blinds is more important than maximizing against a small portion of his range (lower flushes) in spots where it's very obvious what you have. He knows you have a flush, and he gets to play almost perfectly against your hand if he has a higher flush and thus can manage to bloat the pot from 12.5bbs on the turn to almost 600bbs on the turn/river and you have 0 equity against that part of his range (once again, ignoring straight flush redraw).


edit: at the end I was talking about "trying to get all in" etc. and it's clear you're not advocating that, so just ignore it I guess. but one question: does a donkified villain ever get all-in with a 7 high flush here? And if he is shoving it, how confident are you now about 3-bet/folding?

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
Casper,

It's impossible to prove this either way, but I'm confident villain either has a flush or a hand less than a set on the turn like 90% of the time (meaning that he's rarely raising/calling a 3-bet with less than a flush because people like him don't seem to raise the turn with like a pair with the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]).

ok, that's confusing, but I'm trying to say... 3-betting usually folds out everything but flushes (feel free to argue, you might be right) and now we're left with examining how flush holds up. Surely as the flush gets lower you should 3-bet less often, and for me, T9hh is right on the cusp of when you should just call.

When playing ridiculously deep (281bbs deep here) you are going to lose a lot of money by trying to get all-in with hands that you would try to get all-in if you had 100bbs. Protecting all these big blinds is more important than maximizing against a small portion of his range (lower flushes) in spots where it's very obvious what you have. He knows you have a flush, and he gets to play almost perfectly against your hand if he has a higher flush and thus can manage to bloat the pot from 12.5bbs on the turn to almost 600bbs on the turn/river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Honestly I'm not sure why there's any discussion here. Bet/call turn, c/c river, done. 3-betting turn is awful IMHO. Edit: even against far bigger idiots than this guy.