NL$100| Value betting (two hands)

Acevader · #1 10-04-2007, 01:25 PM

How do you get value on this river? No read on villain. Do you push, make a PSB or make a smaller bet?

Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $98.50
SB: $113.80
BB: $208.05
UTG: $105
CO: $183.25

Pre-Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
2 folds, Hero raises to $3.50, SB folds, BB calls $2.50

Flop: ($7.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB bets $1, Hero raises to $7, BB calls $6

Turn: ($21.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $15, BB calls $15

River: ($51.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks

In this hand villain is 31/13/1.6. You may not think this is a value situation, you may think it's a call. I think this is a value bet situation so I've kept my river action in the history. I believe I get paid from lower kicker 8s here. Do you agree with this push or should I have made a lower more conventional raise? Or something else?

Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): $247.45
BTN: $108.50
SB: $239.95
BB: $119.55
UTG: $79.90
MP: $52.50

Pre-Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG calls $1, MP folds, Hero raises to $4.50, BTN folds, SB calls $4, 2 folds

Flop: ($11) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $7, SB calls $7

Turn: ($25) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $14, SB calls $14

River: ($53) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB bets $28, Hero raises to $221.95 and is All-In

skibbel · #2 10-04-2007, 01:29 PM

1. Fold preflop, river i bet 34$
2. A smaller raise might have more EV, i'd bet a bit more on the flop/turn, but there's nothing really wrong in this hand.

cheer · #3 10-04-2007, 01:34 PM

1. he is playing it like he has a JT/JK so I think you should make a bet somewhere in the 30-40 range.

2. that bet is weird. It could be a blocking bet with Qx, the other 8, 444, or a missed fd. I would almost say call but not sure. Looking for other opinions

skibbel · #4 10-04-2007, 01:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would almost say call but not sure

[/ QUOTE ]
Raise>>>>>>>>>>>& gt;>>>>>>>>>>>&gt ;>>call>fold

TwistedEcho · #5 10-04-2007, 01:42 PM

Both of them i shove river. I like shoving rivers.

AE6 · #6 10-04-2007, 02:04 PM

1st hand i def shove river on the assumption that Qx will never ever fold.

2nd hand, i think i just raise/call given the stack sizes and hope he doesnt have a boat. wtf is up with that turn bet though?

tubasteve · #7 10-04-2007, 02:06 PM

1)32
2)102

riske · #8 10-04-2007, 02:22 PM

First hand is perfect, now bet about 35-40 on that river.

Second hand I'd bet more on flop, more on turn, and I'm a bit torn about the river, though shoving can't be that bad.

Edit: Shoving river in first hand is kinda sexy too.

Acevader · #9 10-04-2007, 03:06 PM

LOL at assumption that Q6s should just be folded preflop. I'd been sitting quiet on this table for long enough that I'd raise any two from the button on this round. Mitigating circumstance, I probably should have said.

I shoved both rivers and in both cases villain(s) folded.

Hand 1

The pot on the river is $51.50 and the effective stacks are $73 back. If he a J, 9, 1010, etc then I figure he'll only really call around a $15-20 bet and even then probably not. If he has a queen or straight I think he'll call AI so I saw a push as the more profitable play. There is also a small chance he might think a push is a missed draw and call lighter.

Hand 2

$7 into $11 is pretty standard on the flop. Near enough exactly 2/3rd pot and there is only a gutshot draw to worry about so it's fine to not go mad pot building with just second pair - after all its more of a feeler bet than a value bet.

I also think the turn bet is fine. If he calls that bet then I'm probably behind to Qx, 99-JJ and thus don't want to be betting massive. If he floated the flop he should usually be disappearing now. If he's ahead then I want to keep this pot under control. If he raises here I'll try to narrow his range and assess my implied odds but I certainly do not view this as an auto 'get them in situation' since a c/r from villain here usually means only my FD would save me and I only have one card to come. This turn bet is therefore pot control whilst at the same time starting to build a pot in case I'm called and do hit my hand.

For those that advocate betting more what would you bet? $20 (4/5th pot), or pot $25? What will that extra money get him to fold that we would want to fold? What if he raises: we bet $20 and he makes it $60 more. That leaves $141 effectively remaining if we call the raise and our pot equity on the turn is 32%. Our final pot implied equity for a $60 call on the turn is 12.5% if we stack him (which we won't always achieve). Our hand improves around 19% of the time. Those numbers are pretty tight - I don't think I'd make that call without a clear read that I can stack him the vast majority of the time a spade hits the river.

On the other hand by betting $14 ($15 would have been a nicer number :shrug

into $25 a raise from villain is more likely to be in the order of $55-70 leaving potentially more room to work within. Furthermore, if villain is the sort that raises in relation to the bet rather than the total pot he may just raise to 3-3.5x the $14 (i.e. $42-49) This is why I think a lower turn bet here is perfectly fine. It keeps the pot under control whilst as the same time still building it slowly. It means we are less easily pushed off the nut draw (which would be bad). Anyone disagree with that logic?

The river had me stumped and my heart was racing since an error here would be very costly. If his bet is a blocker then I don't see him calling any size or raise so there is no value lost by one raise size over another. However, if he's betting a FH we make a massive mistake (and costly one) raising him. In the end I conclude that if he had a set or two pair he's surely raise the turn for value since I'm betting the turn like I have a reasonable made hand. That being the case I figured the river bet to be a bluff to represent the 8 or a value bet with an 8. Again, he calls nothing when he's bluffing but I do think he'll cry and call an AI with 8x here often enough and with his stats 8x is still in his range on this river. With the top kicker to go with my 8 I figure the most profitable move on this river is to push AI since he should call most/all times he has 8x.

That's my logic for the hands - anyone care to pick holes in it.

blah-blah-blah · #10 10-04-2007, 03:27 PM

hand 1: is anyone ever c/cing the turn w/ a Q? much more likely he has a draw/Jx so I don't like shoving. just make a normal v-bet ~$30. pf is fine.

hand 2: bet ~$20 on the turn. as played raise to $100 maybe less to get him to shove 8x. $100 gets more value from Qx. and raising lower gets him to shove 8x i would think. I'm torn between ~$100 and ~$74. I don't think we need to shove tho.