PLO8 $100: Ingenius or stupid shove

MattS · #1 06-05-2007, 06:54 PM

UTG is a LAG (VP$IP 43, PFR 24, AF 2.35). BB seems to be loose passive postflop but I have not played many hands with him.

Prima Poker skin
Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $131.51
MattSk: $125.20
SB: $380.03
BB: $43.90

Pre-flop: (4 players) MattSk is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG raises to $2, MattSk calls, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($6.5, 3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $5, MattSk calls, BB raises to $26.5, UTG calls, MattSk raises to $112.5, BB calls all-in $16.4, UTG calls.

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($274.4, 2 players + 1 all-in - Main pot: $135.2, Sidepot 1: $139.2)
UTG is all-in $17.01, MattSk calls all-in $10.7.
Uncalled bets: $6.31 returned to UTG.

bbartlog · #2 06-05-2007, 07:37 PM

Seems stupid. After BB raises, I would expect your reraise to have one of two results: either you end up HU against one opponent holding a hand that you're 50/50 or worse against (set or nut straight, maybe something like AKQJ suited in diamonds), or you end up against one player with the nut flush draw and another with a set / nut straight, in which case your equity looks very bad. UTG certainly is playing as if he had the nut flush draw.
If you are very lucky, both players have the nut straight or one has bottom set and the other the straight, at which point your flush draw is good and your equity is not too bad. But I think the vast majority of the time this isn't a good idea.

PorkPieHat · #3 06-06-2007, 08:27 AM

I'll vote for the latter.

Sphere99991 · #4 06-06-2007, 10:08 AM

I agree with bbart, you gotta fold the flop. Your flush draw could easily not be good, and your top 2-pair could be crushed. If one of them has straight and the other has a better flush draw, you're pretty much owned in this hand. Two pair, weak flush, backdoor low doesn't play well on a straight board.

Phil153 · #5 06-06-2007, 10:32 AM

This is definitely a push.

In the near worst case scenario (against a flush draw AND a made straight), you have 26% in the main pot. If LAG UTG has AA4 with diamonds (an overpair + a better flush draw), you have 48% vs him in the side pot. That means that in the almost worst case scenario, you barely lose any money.

In the average case scenario (vs a straight or set + UTG having a random something), you'll make an ok return. In a better scenario, which is not unlikely given that you're up against both a LAG and a loose player, you make a truckload of money

People underestimate the power of top two here.

You're No Daisy · #6 06-06-2007, 10:42 AM

Matt,

There's already a made straight on the board and someone most likely holds a suited Ace of diamonds or has flopped a set (hopefully not a set of Jacks). Your hand is no good here unless you hit a J or T for the boat...assuming nobody is holding JJ. This is a pretty easy fold on the flop for me. Even top two pair in PLO8 is a weak holding...especially on a draw-heavy board. Wait until you really know where you stand before shoving.

AC

Sphere99991 · #7 06-06-2007, 10:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
People underestimate the power of top two here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you even play this game? You are WAY overestimating his hand here. Against just a straight and nut flush draw, your EV is < 30. Against a straight, better flush draw, set of 10s, you're down to 20. If he's got a set of Js, you're down to less than 10. You're really not in good shape here. I've save the money.

BEST case you're like 30 EV. If a guy flipped over KK in hold 'em and went all-in pf, would you call with AJ? No.

You're No Daisy · #8 06-06-2007, 10:57 AM

I gotta disagree Phil...this isn't a tournament, it's a cash game. Top two is a weak holding on such a draw-heavey board. Anyone with a suited A, K, or Q of diamands has Matt screwed if a diamond higher than 6 falls (6 or lower give him the low). He's drawing to the low on the turn, but if a 7 or an 8 hits I can't like his chance of winning high.

Phil153 · #9 06-06-2007, 11:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
People underestimate the power of top two here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you even play this game? You are WAY overestimating his hand here. Against just a straight and nut flush draw, your EV is < 30. Against a straight, better flush draw, set of 10s, you're down to 20. If he's got a set of Js, you're down to less than 10. You're really not in good shape here. I've save the money.

BEST case you're like 30 EV. If a guy flipped over KK in hold 'em and went all-in pf, would you call with AJ? No.

[/ QUOTE ]
Did you read my post? Are you aware that most of the money will go into a side pot? Did you read the OP? What do you think UTG's range is when the action comes back to us?? What is our equity against that range?

Phil153 · #10 06-06-2007, 11:11 AM

[ QUOTE ]
]I gotta disagree Phil...this isn't a tournament, it's a cash game. Top two is a weak holding on such a draw-heavey board.

[/ QUOTE ]
You don't just have top two...you have top two, a flush draw, and a backdoor low draw. People were justifying a fold on the weakness of the flush draw, which I agree with, but top two changes the situation greatly.

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone with a suited A, K, or Q of diamands has Matt screwed if a diamond higher than 6 falls (6 or lower give him the low). He's drawing to the low on the turn, but if a 7 or an 8 hits I can't like his chance of winning high.

[/ QUOTE ]
The turn is irrelevant since almost all the money is in already....