Evaluating my progress @ .5/1

[DanoMak]

So I've put in 13K hands at 0.5/1. My play has been mainly at Hollywood or Party when they offer a reload. My initial goal is to build my bankroll from scratch while I hopefully improve my game, and Hollywood had a nice sign up bonus.

I have no intention of moving up in limit in the near future, however I would obviously like to improve my BB/100 from its current 0.6.

You'll also notice from the graph that there is no real trend, so the 0.6 doesn't mean much to me. Hopefully a larger sample size will tell me more in the future.



Now prepare for my likely idiotic questions and I will prepare for the flaming.

My monster (AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK) win rate has dropped from 75% to 60% since hand 9000. Is variance like this normal?

How much does site selection effect win rate? I feel like I'm grinding at HW right now. I know the whole "if you can't beat bad players you shouldn't move up" point of view, but I also know I've seen respected posters on the micros talk about their downswings. So I'm not sure how to gauge my progress.

If anyone has any remarks or helpful hints on how they evaluate their improvement, I'd appreciate it. I'd be happy to add any extra info if someone deems it necessary.

[kerowo]

Probably sample size. Don't get freaked out by big changes in win rate when you only have 25 hands. Your win rate is probably changing each session as well. I have over 100k hands and managed to drop mine from .96 to .90 last night.

To evaluate your play these stats are worthless. What is your vpip? What is your pfr? How often do you steal the blinds?

[DanoMak]

VPIP = 16.69%
PFR = 7.67% (increasing ... 8.8 in last 5K)
AF = 1.88

Steal = 16%
Won $ When Saw Flop = 35%

Leaks (I don't know what good numbers are, but I know these are too high... I feel like I get burned when I try to defend. Perhaps some 6-max would benefit me):
Folded SB to Steal: 82
Folded BB to Steal: 63

[Didelo]

Hollywood is part of pokerroom's network isn't it? I am crushing $0.25-$0.50 there because it's full of crazy LAGs and fish. However, it's not unusual to see a $0.50-$1 table with a 20% VPIP. I'm really struggling at $0.50-$1 because the play is so tight.

[RcrdBoy]

[ QUOTE ]
VPIP = 16.69%
PFR = 7.67% (increasing ... 8.8 in last 5K)
AF = 1.88

Steal = 16%
Won $ When Saw Flop = 35%

Leaks (I don't know what good numbers are, but I know these are too high... I feel like I get burned when I try to defend. Perhaps some 6-max would benefit me):
Folded SB to Steal: 82
Folded BB to Steal: 63

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are going to play Poker Network sites you have to get more aggressive. Steal% of 16 is gonna get you killed at these tight games. Playing 1/2 @ Hollywood my steal % is between 35% - 40%.

Defending is tough. It depends, obviously, on the opponent, but also the position, and then what you have. You have to increase your 3 betting range and be able to put them on a range of hands and tendencies (always c-bets, will raise ISDs). Obviously all this takes time and notes and many, many hands, but if you are going to play in games that people steal regularly you need to figure this out before you get ground down.

Here is a link (it's High Stakes Short handed) that discussed blind defense in general terms and even though some of it doesn't directly relate it does address Blind Defense in a general sense and a decent way to look at it.

Short handed play is also a good way to amp up your aggressiveness if you feel too passive. Here is a great start if you are interested.

Good luck.