Theory: Bluffing (can you pull it off at < NL 100???)

effang · #1 06-19-2007, 04:49 PM

Bluffing is an integral part of the game. It can add to your bb/100 and often, like pot odds, simply has to be calculated as an EV ratio.

However, I’m talking about those huge river all in bluffs, that if called, will be guaranteed losers. At what level can you start running huge river bluffs? I’m in that quandary now. I want to increase my game, but don’t bluff people that can’t fold. But if you can’t practice these huge river bluffs at the micro’s, then when are you going to start?

Without the huge river all in bluff, position, as a weapon, significantly decreases in effectiveness. There’s no advantage of going second if the villain can’t fold, or you can’t pull the trigger, of if you can’t threaten their stack at any street.

So, at what level did you first start running huge river bluffs?

This hand occurred yesterday. Donkey was 95/15/2, and the other guy was a “decent’ 18/7/1. I call PF because I can stack the donkey w/ anything greater than TP NO KICKER. I’m afraid of raising the flop because I don’t know if the reg has a hand or not. I lead turn because I don’t want to call a full pot, and makes my hand look ridiculously strong (and i just got 9 more outs). I don’t hit river…I could have shoved, but, you just never know. Donkey has called off full stacks with TP no kicker. In every situation he has been the one shoving. I don’t know how he feels about calling a large river bet, but I wouldn't put money on it.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP2 ($24.65)
CO ($26.35)
Button ($9)
SB ($68.15)
BB ($24.90)
UTG ($7.85)
UTG+1 ($88)
Hero ($48.80)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, 1 fold, CO raises to $1.5, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $1.25, Hero calls $1.25.

Flop: ($4.85) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, CO bets $3.75, UTG+1 calls $3.75, Hero calls $3.75.

Turn: ($16.10) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $9, CO folds, UTG+1 calls $9.

River: ($34.10) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: $34.10

threads13 · #2 06-19-2007, 04:56 PM

I understand what you are saying. However, I think there are plenty of spots where you can be looking for bluffs at this level. It is all player-dependent, as I am sure you know.

wallenborn · #3 06-19-2007, 05:48 PM

Threads is right, bluffing opportunities are plenty in the micros. They might be different from those at higher levels though. Villains at 25NL don't think much about what you think they think you have. They are not scared when they face pot-sized bets on 3 streets. They call them down with top pair and call you a luckbox when you flip over your set.

But a lot of players tend to be too scared of the board. Not all, of course, there are idiots who can't find the brakes even when the third overcard to their pocket sevens falls. But when i start noticing my flushes don't get paid off at one table, i start bluffing three-flush boards. Trying to find an example from today's play, i couldn't find a prototypical one, this here is the closest i played today:

Villain is 20/0/2, and has not lost a showdown yet. By the river i figured he likely had a bigger king, so i tried to win the hand with a bluff.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG :#A500AF(Villain)/ ($14.05)
MP ($25.45)
Button ($37.10)
SB ($36.25)
Hero ($61.35)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG :#A500AF(Villain)/ calls $0.25, 3 folds, Hero checks.

Flop: ($0.60) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $0.5, Villain calls $0.50.

Turn: ($1.60) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Villain checks.

River: ($1.60) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $1, Villain folds.

Final Pot: $2.60

Steelerman · #4 06-19-2007, 05:55 PM

It's an interesting question because on one hand super-donks are the ones likely to keep calling down and arrive at the river with nothing, but on the other hand SD's are also the ones who will look you up with 3rd pair no kicker.

AFCBeer · #5 06-19-2007, 06:04 PM

Low limit players tend to think in binary - that is in terms of bet or no bet. Often there is little consideration to the size of the bet they have to call.

Obviously against opponents with a higher propensity to call bets you should bluff less often. However, you will be amazed by the cheap bluffs you can run. If they have "nothing" on the turn you can frequently get away with bluffs of 1/3 pot. That looks like a good risk/reward ratio to me!

diebitter · #6 06-19-2007, 06:34 PM

big river bluffs are best when your betting matches what you're representing. For example you may have a little pair that don't hit the flop, but if 2-suited hits, you can play on, timidly. This looks just the same as a flush draw to the villain. If your set hits, fantastic, but if that third suited hits, you can sometimes bite the bullet and go for it - especially if villain is any good, and bet to appear to have big pair or AK/AQ

It's rubbish to do when you've been timid and a brick lands on the river (unless its your set of course).

CalledDownLight · #7 06-19-2007, 06:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Threads is right, bluffing opportunities are plenty in the micros. They might be different from those at higher levels though. Villains at 25NL don't think much about what you think they think you have. They are not scared when they face pot-sized bets on 3 streets. They call them down with top pair and call you a luckbox when you flip over your set.

But a lot of players tend to be too scared of the board. Not all, of course, there are idiots who can't find the brakes even when the third overcard to their pocket sevens falls. But when i start noticing my flushes don't get paid off at one table, i start bluffing three-flush boards. Trying to find an example from today's play, i couldn't find a prototypical one, this here is the closest i played today:

Villain is 20/0/2, and has not lost a showdown yet. By the river i figured he likely had a bigger king, so i tried to win the hand with a bluff.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG :#A500AF(Villain)/ ($14.05)
MP ($25.45)
Button ($37.10)
SB ($36.25)
Hero ($61.35)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG :#A500AF(Villain)/ calls $0.25, 3 folds, Hero checks.

Flop: ($0.60) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $0.5, Villain calls $0.50.

Turn: ($1.60) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Villain checks.

River: ($1.60) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $1, Villain folds.

Final Pot: $2.60

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not a bluff or even a thin vbet. This is a pretty clear value bet and is never folding out a better hand.

As for bluffing you can start as low as NL5 even vs. "unbluffable opponents," you just have to know when to pull the trigger. Board texture is by far the most important at this level, learn to read boards well and you'll be fine.

Teddie · #8 06-19-2007, 06:38 PM

After the discussion in Capt's thread here
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...=2#Post10802700

I decided to give it a try, in hindsight its a killer of a river card, but hows the rest of it?

Green Joke Poker Indiana 0.02/0.04, hand converted by the iPoker Converter at Talking-Poker

saw flop | saw showdown

Button ($1.73)
SB Hero ($4.76)
BB ($3.02)
UTG ($7)
UTG+1 ($5)
MP ($7.18)
MP ($2.82)
MP MP ($2.34)
CO-1 CO-1 ($9.41)
CO CO ($2.16)

Preflop: Hero is in the SB with 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
4 folds, MP calls 0.04, CO-1 calls 0.04, CO raises to 0.16, 1 fold, Hero calls 0.14, 1 fold, MP calls 0.12, CO-1 calls 0.12.

Flop (0.68) 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero bets 0.32, 1 fold, CO-1 calls 0.32, 1 fold.

Turn (1.32) T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero bets 0.80, CO-1 calls 0.80.

River (2.92) A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero bets 3, CO-1 calls 3

Hero shows 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
CO-1 shows A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

CO-1 wins 8.92 with One pair, Ace

d

zyrrth · #9 06-19-2007, 06:48 PM

3 barreling oop on a board like this isn't a good idea.
If you want to bluff at these kinda stakes I'd suggest looking for obvious spots like a flush that hits or something, people are always scared of flushes at these limits it seems.

veryblind · #10 06-19-2007, 07:15 PM

Often times when sizing my bluff bet on the river, I think about how much the player is willing to pay for a "curiosity call" (a call just to see what you have) and I try to bet just a little bit more than that.

But the first thing that you have to consider is whether your whole line makes sense. Even for a non-thinking opponent, I believe they are pricing their curiosity call against your line, even if they have little experience evaluating your line. e.g. if there's a 4-flush on the board, they may convince themselves that you have a flush and there's no need to pay to see it. If the board is dry, they may call you just to see how high your TP kicker is even if they don't have TP themselves.

I think one of the reason it's harder to pull off bluffs at lower limits is because the cost of a curiousity call is so cheap. Even if you bet the full pot, it may be a $5 bet and calling may let them sleep better at nights.

So for me, this is one of those times when I tend to consider the absolute value of the bet as opposed to the relative value of the bet to the pot.

So to answer your question, I think bluffs can be run at < NL100 assuming the absolute bet size is big enough.