NL50: Facing AI RR on River w/ non nut Flush

[oakrdrzfan]

Is this a fold here? Never mind on the limp PF, I am more interested in the river play. Is my river raise ok? I was sensing straight. Now what with the AI RR?

Cryptologic - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 7 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $61.93
BB: $68.85
UTG: $49.20
UTG+1: $10.70
MP: $18.75
CO: $13.75
Hero (BTN): $51.00

Reads: <font color="blue">SB is 25/8/1
BB is 40/15/2
both over approx 50 hands</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (7 Players)
4 folds, Hero calls $0.50, SB calls $0.25, BB checks

Flop: ($1.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $1.00</font>, BB calls $1.00, Hero calls $1.00

Turn: ($4.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $2.50</font>, BB calls $2.50, Hero calls $2.50

River: ($12) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">BB bets $4.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $15.00</font>, SB folds, <font color="red">BB raises all-in to $64.85</font>, Hero Calls or Folds???

[oober]

Tough one here IMO, 3rd nut flush against a 40vpip player? I'd probably just pay it off. Coin flip for me!!!!!!!!!!

[bigslicknuts]

Hmm tough spot. I probably can't make a fold here at 50NL, but I expect to see flush over flush/flush under flush a lot of the time.

FYI, smaller flush I fold, bigger flush I obv instacall, yours is in a gray area for me.

[oober]

Just to add, normally in this spot. I'd probably just call on the river, Might be a weak play, but I have no problem with it.

[Fiasco]

those are lagtard stats. Im willing to pay off on the assumption that hes shoving any flush here.

[Specialwon]

With only 15 seconds to make a decision I would probably call, but with a bit longer to think, I believe this is a fold.

You beat 44,66,99, baby flushes, QT and air. You lose to AXd, Kxd QXd.

50 hands is a pretty limited read, but his a.f. suggests he is fairly measured post flop. So, air doesn't seem that likely.

Sets would normally have raised up the flop or the turn, so 44 and 66 seem less likely. 99, he would have raised pf, no?

So, that leaves only QT and the flushes. Tight, but I think that as others have said, a call would have served you better on the river and I think I can find a fold here.

Edit: Stoving any 2 diamonds, QT and the pairs, you are well ahead. Lose the pairs and it's more or less a coinflip. With a coinflip I guess you have to look at the pot odds which favour a call, so I guess I was wrong. BUT, I have a feeling pokerstove maybe counting some holdings twice, without putting in every suited hand manually idk if its maybe counting hands with T and 8 in them.