New York Jets +2.5 at Miami: What am I missing?

[iggymcfly]

The Sagarin ratings only have Miami favored by 1.5 at home. The Jets need this game to make the playoffs and the Dolphins could be playing in front of a half-empty stadium on Christmas day. The Jets covered in a 3 point victory over the Dolphins early in the season. 60% of the Wagerline bettors are on the Jets.

Yet somehow the line's stayed steady or moved a few cents to Miami if anything? What am I missing here? Why is sharp money coming in on the Dolphins? I'd love to write it off as Bengals, Broncos, Titans, Jaguars, and Chiefs fans betting with their hearts, hoping the Jets lose, but is that likely? Would like to hear from some Miami backers to see if I'm missing something before I put my money down here.

[lastsamurai]

Look at Miami's second half record. They have been playing fairly well with Joey Harrington as the starting QB... I like the under on this one though.

Last

[rjp]

Throw the numbers out for a minute and just look at last week first. The Jets really run the score up on a hapless Minnesota team that, while in the race, had no chance at making the NFC playoffs. The Dolphins go to Buffalo after trashing the hated Patriots and get blown out.

Who, in your mind, is more motivated this week? The home team on Monday night on Christmas, or the away team "fighting" for a playoff spot off a big win with the hapless Raiders in town next week to finish the season?

The Jets haven't performed all that bad on the road so far this year, but when they played a defense that's similar to the one they'll face today they were blown out 41-0 in Jacksonville. They did beat the Pats in New England, but I don't consider the Pats to have as good a defense as Jacksonville or Miami.

The Dolphins have been pretty good at home with Harrington, someone that almost lead them back to beat the Jets earlier in the season. Dolphins win this game ~60% of the time, so there's value with laying the points (anything under 3, that is).

[iggymcfly]

[ QUOTE ]
Who, in your mind, is more motivated this week? The home team on Monday night on Christmas, or the away team "fighting" for a playoff spot off a big win with the hapless Raiders in town next week to finish the season?

[/ QUOTE ]

This one. The fact that they're playing the Raiders next week just makes it even more concrete that this is the game that decides whether they go to the playoffs or not.

Also:
<u>QB Rating on the season</u>
Joey Harrington: 68.8
Daunte Culpepper: 77.0

I really wouldn't give a lot of credit to Harrington for being the deciding factor. There's a reason he got benched in favor of Cleo Lemon last week. I guess if anything, the fact that Ronnie Brown's back should favor the Dolphins, but Sammy Morris also had better stats in relief than Brown did as the starter. I think I've talked myself into taking the Jets here. 2 units on the moneyline.

[rjp]

The reason: zero points scored. Get the other guy some work--happens all the time. Jets can still get in if they lose tonight. Not to say it's not worth anything, but "must win" is probably the most overrated factor in the NFL.

[iggymcfly]

Just wanted to say that I added on a GAMBOL bet here:

Since:
1) I've already determined the Jets are +EV
2) Even though I don't follow them that closely, the Jets are my favorite NFL team
3) I just had an awesome afternoon playing Omahaha (the equivalent of 40 betting units)

I decided to add another 6 units on the Jets moneyline. J-E-T-S! Jets! Jets! Jets!

[Macdaddy Warsaw]

[ QUOTE ]
Just wanted to say that I added on a GAMBOL bet here:

Since:
1) I've already determined the Jets are +EV
2) Even though I don't follow them that closely, the Jets are my favorite NFL team
3) I just had an awesome afternoon playing Omahaha (the equivalent of 40 betting units)

I decided to add another 6 units on the Jets moneyline. J-E-T-S! Jets! Jets! Jets!

[/ QUOTE ]

I really hope your bet comes in because I've got a 130-1 parlay riding on a Jets win.

[rjp]

Jets are a lock right now. Bet your house on it.

[noddyholder]

Make up your mind rip you have me confused.

[rjp]

I find value with the Dolphins, and the ball hasn't bounced anywhere in my direction lately, so the Jets are the obvious lock. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]