Making a Point--Line Shopping Matters

[MyTurn2Raise]

i've gotten a few PMs asking about the
Inimical NFL Algorithm Spotting Systematic Addle-Pates
methodology that I've employed this year in the NFL

Basically, the whole point of the system was to show how the 'boring' details of sportsbetting like line shopping matters.
There is/was a vocal poster to the forum who studies the NFL somewhat seriously, feels he has good insights, and has taken the step to betting the NFL for real and not just entertainment this season. However, this poster largely ignored many very qualified posters who chirped the importance of line shopping and reading line movements.

Each week this poster has posted somewhere between 3 and 7 NFL picks. To make a point and to make a little money, I actively bet the opposite way of each pick with about 5-10 minutes of effort put into line shopping. Have it be noted that I'm not the best line shopper and I'm less than below average at line movements.

I did not do this system to embarrass that poster, who adds insights that I think add value to the forum. I did this because many of us come to sports betting with the idea of just picking winnerz and raking in mad loot. Many of us have been at the point in our betting careers where we just didn't realize how important the best price and best line are. I've been fortunate enough to have a few posters point out said importance and fortunate enough to listen to them.

I bring this up now, because the difference in results between my system bets and that of the person I am fading is quite interesting right now. For reference, the person I'm fading bets in a single B&M casino (changes from week to week) in Vegas at -110 pricing (unless otherwise noted). From week 3 to week 10, we have the same record. However, not the difference in results!
Moral: If you want to take this serious, line shop!

Inimical NFL Algorithm Spotting Systematic Addle-Pates
17-16-2
up 0.12u
bet 37.04u

fading:
17-16-2
down 0.55u
bet 38.45u

**Week 3**
Jacksonville +3.5 -110 +WIN
San Fran +9.5 +106 -LOSS
Dolphins +3 +105 +-PUSH
fading: (1-1-1)
--Denver -3
--Pitt -9.5
--Jets -3

**Week 4**
Atlanta +2.5 v Houston bet 1.01u to win 1u +WIN
Miami -3.5 v Oakland bet 1.05u to win 1u -LOSS
St Louis +14 @ Dallas bet 1.2u to win 1u -LOSS
Arizona +6 v Pitt bet 1.14u to win 1u +WIN
Cincy +9 v Pats bet 1.1u to win 1u -LOSS
fading: (3-2)
--Hou -2.5
--Oak +4
--Pitt -6
--Dal -13
--NE -7

**Week 5**
Saints -3.5 v Panthers bet 1.05u to win 1u (5dimes) -LOSS
Jags -2 @ Chiefs bet 1.1u to win 1u (WSEX) +WIN
Dolphins +6 @ Texans bet 1.2u to win 1u (Bodog) +WIN
Pats -16.5 v Browns bet 1u to win 1.02u (5 dimes) +WIN
Bears +3.5 @ Packers bet 1.05u to win 1u (Bodog) +WIN
Cowboys -10 @ Bills bet 1.05u to win 1u (TheGreek) -LOSS
fading: (2-4)
--Car +3.5
--KC +2.5
--Hou -4.5
--Cle +16.5
--GB -3.5 (-105)
--Buff +10.5

**Week 6**
Chargers -9.5 v Raiders bet 1.02u to win 1u +WIN
Packers -3 v Redskins bet 1u to win 1u +-PUSH
Bears -4.5 v Vikings bet 1u to win 1.06u -LOSS
fading: (2-1)
--Raiders +10 -110
--Redskins +3.5 -110 (Win v Push)
--Vikings +5.5 -110

**Week 7**
Saints -7.5 v Falcons bet 1u to win 1.03u (5dimes) -LOSS
Cowboys -9 v Vikings bet 1.1u to win 1u (BetOnline) +WIN
Jaguars +3 v Inday bet 1u to win 1u () -LOSS
Bengals -6.5 v Jets bet 1u to win 1u (5dimes) +WIN
Eagles -5.5 v Bears bet 1.04u to win 1u (5dimes) -LOSS
fading: (3-2)
--ATL +9 -110
--Minny +9.5 -110
--Indy -3 -110
--Jets +6.5 -110
--Chi +6 -110

**Week 8**
Panthers +7 v Colts bet 1u to win 1u (Bodog) -LOSS
Giants -10 v Dolphins bet 1.03u to win 1u (5dimes) -LOSS
Rams +3 v Browns bet 1.13u to win 1u (5 dimes) -LOSS
fading: (3-0)
--Indy -7
--Miami +10
--clev -3

**Week 9**
Jets +3.5 v Redskins bet 1.05u to win 1u (BetOnline) +WIN
49ers +3.5 @ Falcons bet 1.1u to win 1u (5dimes) -LOSS
Bengals -1 @ Bills bet 1.05u to win 1u (5dimes) -LOSS
Vikings +7 v Chargers bet 1u to win 1u (BetOnline) +WIN
colts +6 v Patriots bet 1.1u to win 1u (BetJamaica) +WIN
Cowboys -3 @ Eagles bet 1.2u to win 1u (5dimes) +WIN
Seattle +2 @ Browns bet 1.1u to win 1u (BoDog) -LOSS
fading: (3-4)
--Wash -3.5
--Atl -3
--Buff +1
--SD -7
--NE -5.5
--Philly +3.5
--Clv -1

**Week 10**
Bills -2.5 v Dolphins bet 1.05u to win 1u +WIN (Betonline)
Rams +10 @ New Orleans bet 1.02u to win 1u +WIN (5dimes)
Chargers +4 v Colts bet 1.05u to win 1u +WIN (Bodog)
fading: (0-2-1)
--Miami +3 (Push v WIN)
--NO -10.5
--Indy -3.5


*NOTE: The poster I'm fading posted week 2 picks that were winnerz before I started to publicly fade him. He is up on the year and deserves a good pat on the back. He is leaving money on the table as they say though.

[MyTurn2Raise]

note: that is nearly a 1.75% difference in ROI
huge in the context that nearly every 'pro' gambler other than Thremp shoots for a 3% ROI overall


also, I do kind of wish I had bet with the poster in question and line shopped in his direction rather than against....I'd be in a better spot right now

[pirateboy]

You faded Assani's picks, right? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[mickeyg13]

For any team that has a non-zero probability of winning, there will be some line that makes them the proper bet. So in some sense, who wins only matters in the short term...in the same sense that long-term it doesn't matter if your pocket aces hold up on a particular hand.

[B00T]

POTY in this forum for multiple reasons

[Austiger]

And here I thought the name of that system actually meant something. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[kyro]

MT2R,

I thought you were talking about me at first.

[Jazzy3113]

I am not sure I understand totally what you did in terms of fading person x.

Basically, every time he made a pick you decided to fade it, but instead of taking an immediate line you shopped around until you got the best line as long as it was fading the poster?

In essence, if you want to bet Jacksonville +3 but shop around and can get them at +3.5, it will make a huge difference long term?

[silentbob]

[ QUOTE ]
line shopping matters

[/ QUOTE ]
I miss Pinnacle. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[B00T]

[ QUOTE ]
I actively bet the opposite way of each pick with about 5-10 minutes of effort put into line shopping.

[/ QUOTE ]

He said that.

The point MT2R is making is that it doesn't matter how good of a capper you are compared to a line shopper at non superduper expert levels. People place too much effort and emphasis on building capping systems, instead of an emphasis on line shopping.

Unless you are Dr. Bob or some famous capper who can make Vegas move the line 3-4 points by yourself, line shopping is just as important as capping.

Few posters have said this over and over, but for the most part it is ignored, because the majority of what they write is trollish. (myself included) Thremp said he could teach a monkey to beat sports betting. He's right, assuming said monkey doesn't take longer than thremp to place a bet which is next to impossible [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]


[ QUOTE ]

In essence, if you want to bet Jacksonville +3 but shop around and can get them at +3.5, it will make a huge difference long term?

[/ QUOTE ]

Buying off the most key number for FREE? Of course it will make a huge difference. Look how much it costs to buy on or off the 3 in football. Now look at how much more often you'd win and getting that half point for free.

I am eagerly waiting for you to tell me how grumpy I am.