all in or fold?

hamnegger · #1 08-05-2007, 08:10 PM

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t200/t400
(Ante: t50)
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t4974
UTG+1: t11203
MP1: t3634
MP2: t10307
MP3: t14611
CO: t6965
Button: t9853
hamnegger: t5140
BB: t3103

Pre-flop: (9 players) hamnegger is SB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 raises to t1200</font>, MP3 folds, CO calls t1200 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t2250)</font>, Button folds, hamnegger ?

atcjhall · #2 08-05-2007, 09:18 PM

fold. MP2 gets >2:1 to call you and CO gets > 3:1. No FE there. You are 8:1 to improve and you have as many as 4 overs to dodge, plus CO could have called first raise w/ 77, 88, or 99. Pick a better spot, unless you just feel like gambling.

TexRef · #3 08-05-2007, 09:48 PM

Fold.

I like to be the first in on these pots. One of them is calling you (and maybe both) and you are either in a coin flip or dominated.

Dunkman · #4 08-05-2007, 10:42 PM

I kinda agree with these guys, I don't think you have very much FE, especially against CO. Also, he called off like 20% of his stack already, so unless you have a read that he's just a moron that could be something huge. As the CO gets more donkish however, you lose FE against MP2, since he's not afraid of CO either and may put you on a squeeze. I guess the perfect reads could make this move ok, but for most any villains I just don't think this particular spot holds a lot of promise.

Dunkman · #5 08-05-2007, 10:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Fold.

I like to be the first in on these pots. One of them is calling you (and maybe both) and you are either in a coin flip or dominated.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not exactly. If we're flipping against one of them (we actually are the favorite) we're in great shape because the overlay with the 1200 from the other play and blinds and antes...we have like half our stack in dead money in the pot, so we're getting like 1.5:1 on the push if we can get a fold from one of them. However, I'm just not sure we have any FE, which means we're just making money when we catch coinflips, and I don't think that happens often enough to cover the situations where they both have good hands or one has a higher pair.