nl2000 KK

[livestream]

2000 USD stacks both

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG+1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $70</font>, 3 folds, CO calls, 3 folds.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($170, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $120</font>, CO calls.

Turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($410, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $200</font>, CO calls.

River: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($810, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets $450</font>, Hero calls.

Results:
Final pot: $1710



i think this i so standard but i have not much experience with a fullring game. Sometimes i am really suprised about peoples play. villians stats 14/6/1
The line he took...i dunno
even if this is a standard if want to hear opinions about his HAND RANGE.

[AllTheCheese]

Fold river, I think.

His hand range when he calls the flop and turn is [44-JJ]. There's really no reason for him to half pot bluff river with 77 here, and he's not aggro enough to make a move like that anyway.

Aside: If he had 44 or 55, I think he was correct to not raise the turn. Usually you have the type of hand you had and are bet/folding on that turn.

[moldman]

Any reads here?
I'm pretty sure I lean towards bet/fold on the river, although I take this line sometimes, but usually on a more drawy board. On the flop, I'd put most people on 44, 55, 88-QQ, with it being a tad more weighted to the lower side, as I think QQ repops preflop a lot, and you'd think an overpair would lead or raise this flop. Your small turn bet might look like a weak double barrel from AK/AQ and he might think his 88 is still good.

Now on the river though, you check and he bets. By checking, you're pretty much hoping to induce a bluff and are calling, otherwise you should be betting. The board isn't really draw heavy though, so I don't really understand his bet on the river. If he thought you missed your overcards, why is he betting? Like I said, reads would really help in assigning a range to him, but assuming a decent player, I'm calling here because of the price though and would expect to be shown JJ 40% of the time and QQ 40% of the time, and 44-55 about 15% of the time. That leaves about a 2% chance of TT and 3% chance of AA-KK.

At least somewhere around there. Of course, I'm often an idiot, so take it all with a grain of salt.


EDIT: I missed the villain's stats in your post. Having seen that, it's much closer to a fold. He probably checks behind with QQ here considering the 1 AF. You're looking at 44, 55, TT or JJ here the majority of the time.

[AllTheCheese]

People have low self-esteem on this forum.

[livestream]

[ QUOTE ]
People have low self-esteem on this forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

explain plz

[moldman]

I think he was referring to me calling myself an idiot.

It was really just a way of saying that at NL200 where I play, that's what I'd expect to see, but have no clue about stakes 10x that.

[livestream]

Would a JJ/QQ bet the river? What amount?

Would KTs/ATs/any FH raise the turn here?

[AllTheCheese]

[ QUOTE ]
Of course, I'm often an idiot, so take it all with a grain of salt.


[/ QUOTE ]

And there are a bunch of posts like this. Need to build up that self-condfidence.

[Albert Moulton]

More often I will I check/call the turn. Then I usually bet/fold the river (this can be a problem, however, if opponent is willing to bluff raise blocking bets), or check/call the river.

But, the line you took is fine, too.

I wouldn't fold at the river as played, either.

On the flop, when he floats your cb, I'd put him on ...

missed high cards, like AK or AQ looking to spike a pair on the turn, or maybe steal if you check/fold the turn,

any medium-sized pair (66-QQ) looking to float/steal or float/fold on the turn if he doesn't have a set or an overpair, but looking to call you down (or raise) the turn with a set or an overpair,

top pair (AT,KTs,QTs,JTs,T9s,T8s),

OESD (67s).

Note: QQ might have reraised preflop, but maybe not. KK and AA probably reraise preflop, so I doubt that he has those.

When he calls the board pairing turn, now the missed high cards other than AJ are out. The mid-pairs that didn't make sets are out. And the OESD is probably no longer an option unless he's a habitual chaser who chases straight draws without good pot or implied odds on a paired board. Plus, if he was floating light on the flop, then he'd either fold or make a move on the board-pairing turn. That means he probably has something and is either slow playing or trying to manage the pot size.

That leaves...
QQ-you are ahead,
AJ (or other XJ broadway hand)-you are ahead unless the X is a T,
JJ-you are behind,
TX-you are behind,
maybe 67s-you are ahead.

On the river, I think his range might no longer include the Jx hands unless it is JT. I think AJ, for example, might just check behind for a show down. That leaves QQ,JJ,TX,67s(or other busted draw of some kind) as the most likely hands villain might have. I don't have pokerstove to see if KK vs that range has enough equity to call the river bet, but my gut feeling is that it's just barely enough.