Overcall this river?

[mongidig]

20-40 live 9 handed.

HJ: Plays every hand, pretty straightforward and a calling station postflop. He will make ridiculous call downs in situations where he is certainly beat. He will peel with nothing on the flop.

BB: Has TAG qualities, but tonight seems to be playing looser than normal. He sometimes plays passively(Against the better players) and sometimes very aggressive(against the bad players). He has threebet once preflop with AdTd but that was against a loose raiser. He reads hands very well and definately knows the game. He has much respect for me. He doesn't bluff often but I am sure I have seen him do it in the past.

I have TAG image and have not been out of line tonight.

HJ open limps, I raise in cutoff with TdTh, folded to BB who calls, HJ calls.

The flop: Js7s6c

I bet, BB calls, HJ calls

The turn: Js7s6cQc

I bet, BB calls, HJ calls

The river: Js7s6cQc7d

BB bets, HJ calls, and I?

[ship it pls]

i fold, we are in last imo

[Munchkin Mayor]

[ QUOTE ]
i fold, we are in last imo

[/ QUOTE ]

[cgrohman]

Dump it

[n.s.]

Easy fold. There's a decent chance that we've got HJ beat, but if BB is decent he will always have a better hand here. Even if BB is capable of making a really sophisticated play (better into the HJ with a weak hand, knowing that HJ will call with anything and that you can't overcall), there still aren't many hands he could be doing this with that we beat (maybe exactly As6s - but we would have raised at some point with that hand).

[The Dude]

This would be a very weird line for BB to take as a bluff. Fold the hand, and all other streets are good.

[RobA]

I'd fold here, and I call down too much.

To be good you're hoping for two things to happen - a BB bluff and a HJ loose call. In general I don't think we're right very often when we are hoping for two things to happen. If the pot were more like 12-13 BB then maybe, but at 9.5BB, you have to fold IMO.