Two Plus Two Newer Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Newer Archives > Tournament Poker > MTT Strategy
FAQ Community Calendar Today's Posts Search

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 02-07-2006, 04:30 PM
SunOfBeach SunOfBeach is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Minimax Consulting
Posts: 466
Default ICM-based decision making at the final table?

Hi,

I'm finishing up a book on a game theoretic analysis of the endgame of MTT's (PS it will be apples and oranges above kill phil, etc in terms of mathematical sophistication... but admittedly geared to a much different audience).

I have a question to anyone who'd be willing to help me out: does anyone actually consider icm-type analysis (ie prize structure implications) when they're at the final table? or is everyone basically just shooting for first, since that's where the real money is. would anything be gained by systematically analyzing these types of things, or is it so intuitively obvious to shoot for first that it becomes boring to look at the math of it?

thanks
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 02-07-2006, 05:05 PM
hockey coach hockey coach is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 162
Default Re: ICM-based decision making at the final table?

I'd love to see the math of it - "play for first" is an oversimplification for "play to maximize EV". I attempt to account for this at the FT (and other times) but I'm sure I've oversimplified as well and or am just flat out wrong at times. The stochastic nature of the game is very complicated (at least to someone who last studied or used stochastic processes during the Carter administration) and I'd love to get some help.

Regards,
HC
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 02-07-2006, 05:33 PM
zoobird zoobird is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 1,045
Default Re: ICM-based decision making at the final table?

Sounds interesting to me. I play mostly MTT sit-n-go's, where the payout structure is somewhere in between a big MTT and and a single table tournament, and my results seem to have improved since I stopped 'shooting for first' quite as much. Having some mathematical tools to determine exactly how to gear strategy to prize structure would be great.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 02-07-2006, 05:51 PM
Mvcode3 Mvcode3 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Trapped in the closet with R. Kelly
Posts: 241
Default Re: ICM-based decision making at the final table?

Defintily worth taking a look at, how do you factor in skill levels with ICM--Ie im at a final table with Ivey, Hellmuth, and brunson with the chiplead....are my chips worth "less" then theirs in terms of payout?
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 02-07-2006, 05:53 PM
esad esad is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Official FIGJAM Hate Club
Posts: 1,818
Default Re: ICM-based decision making at the final table?

I think it depends on how you look at it. I am always trying to win every MTT I enter. But, that doesn't change my style of play. Sometimes it's a mind game thing--people playing for first will either take too many chances to be high in the chip count or will tighten up for fear of getting knocked out.

Sorry, but I just don't see any point of engaging in any competitive endeavor unless you are trying to win.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 02-07-2006, 05:54 PM
NHFunkii NHFunkii is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 5,268
Default Re: ICM-based decision making at the final table?

my intuition tells me that it's close enough to irrelevant in most cases, but when it gets to the last few spots and there's a shortstack it's worth taking a look at.
9 handed though I don't think it's terribly significant. but I could be wrong.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 02-08-2006, 01:08 AM
SunOfBeach SunOfBeach is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Minimax Consulting
Posts: 466
Default Re: ICM-based decision making at the final table?

ok, im going to post more in the coming weeks on some of this type of stuff. thanks for your reponses,

peter chabot
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 02-08-2006, 01:12 AM
Proofrock Proofrock is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Etherized upon a table
Posts: 1,384
Default Re: ICM-based decision making at the final table?

it's funny you should post this, because i've been intending to write a little something about this within the next week or so.
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 02-08-2006, 06:18 AM
SumZero SumZero is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: South SF bay area, Califonia
Posts: 1,223
Default Re: ICM-based decision making at the final table?

I think you'd be crazy not to consider ICM when you are at the final table. Play for first is an oversimplification that is often right but not always.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 02-08-2006, 09:55 AM
fiskebent fiskebent is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: To your right
Posts: 1,124
Default Re: ICM-based decision making at the final table?

ICM can support decisions at the FT that some may find intuitively obvious and others may not. For instance if there are 7 short stacks and 1 big stack at the FT with you, it's almost always -$EV to go up against the big stack for your entire stack no matter how large your edge is. This is one of the widely known scenarios where it's the right decision mathematically to fold AA pre-flop.

An add-on to ICM could be the non-linearity in the value of dollars when the prizes are large compared to your bankroll / general economy. You can say that the 'utility' you get from winning $1 mio. isn't always 10 times as large as the utility you'd get from winning $100,000. If I win $100,000 maybe I can pay off some debt and make my life easier for myself and my family for the next 30 years. A $100,000 increase in prize money from $900,000 to $1,000,000 might not give me nearly as much value for money. Maybe I'd blow those last $100,000 on a new car or something.

Another scenario where there isn't a linear relationship between dollars and utility could be one where I owe a goon $800,000 and he'll break my kneecaps if I don't pay in 2 days. That would make the prizes below $800,000 nearly worthless to me and I might take more risks to win a large prize.

If the relationship between dollars and utility isn't linear, your should go for maximising utility rather than dollars.

If the prize money are insignificant compared to your general economy, there'll probably be a linear relationship between dollars and utility and you can just play to maximise $EV.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:03 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.