Question about folding the nut low flush. (A Grimstarr saga.)

[Subfallen]

Full Tilt Poker Game #1198771324: Table Masters (heads up) - $50/$100 - No Limit Hold'em - 9:51:19 ET - 2006/11/05
Seat 1: The Gift of Gab ($16,122.25)
Seat 2: Grimstarr ($16,204.25)
The Gift of Gab posts the small blind of $50
Grimstarr posts the big blind of $100
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Grimstarr [3d 4d]
The Gift of Gab raises to $300
Grimstarr calls $200
*** FLOP *** [3s Ad 5d]
Grimstarr bets $600
The Gift of Gab calls $600
*** TURN *** [3s Ad 5d] [Qd]
Grimstarr bets $1,800
The Gift of Gab has 15 seconds left to act
The Gift of Gab raises to $6,100
Grimstarr raises to $15,304.25, and is all in
The Gift of Gab calls $9,122.25, and is all in
Grimstarr shows [3d 4d]
The Gift of Gab shows [Kd 6d]
Uncalled bet of $82 returned to Grimstarr
*** RIVER *** [3s Ad 5d Qd] [2h]
Grimstarr shows a flush, Ace high
The Gift of Gab shows a flush, Ace high
The Gift of Gab wins the pot ($32,244) with a flush, Ace high
Grimstarr is sitting out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $32,244.50 | Rake $0.50
Board: [3s Ad 5d Qd 2h]
Seat 1: The Gift of Gab (small blind) showed [Kd 6d] and won ($32,244) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 2: Grimstarr (big blind) showed [3d 4d] and lost with a flush, Ace high

-----------------------------------------------------------

After GoG calls the turn bet there is $5.4k in the pot. So Grim's push is risking $13.4k to win $32.2k (assuming GoG will be pot-committed and call.)
Grim needs 30% equity to break even on the play.

What bothers me is that GoG can have nearly any flush here; HU on the button he probably plays most of the remaining 28 combinations of X[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]Y[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Against all these, say, 25 combinations of hands, Grim has only 2.2% equity.

The hands that GoG will be bluffing with are presumably going to be mostly [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] semibluffs. (Good assumption?) So GoG will have 13.6% equity when he is behind.

We can see how often GoG will need to be semibluffing to get Grim to 30% equity:

(.022)(25/(25+x)) + (.864)(x/(25+x)) = .3 =>
(.022)(25) + (.864)(x) = 7.5 + .3x =>
.564x = 6.95 =>
x = 12.3 combinations

This seems hopelessly optimistic to me. There are only 2 combinations of AxK[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]; and I don't even see why GoG would particularly want to semibluff here.

Any thoughts?

[FlyingStart]

I dont play this high but from my own experience playing HU I could have alot of hands there.

I could have 22, AQ and a TON of other hands that I just floated the flop with.

I would never CALL the allin with any of those though, which I agree is problem with this hand. GoG's calling range pretty much only consist of better hands. The only thing I see is a set, but playing a set like that is pretty bad with those stack sizes IMO.

[Mr_Blonde]

You know, flushes aren't the only hand ranking in poker. Some others include "two pair", "three of a kind" and "straight".

[CopTHIS]

I don't mind the odd bit of combinatorics, but this his high stakes heads-up. I'm not sure I've played against Grim but he is known as aggressive even when it's 6 handed. Depending on the dynamics of the game, and how he sees villian this can be a fold (against a nit or at least a player he feels he has a very good read on) or an easy call. To be honest, it's very very hard for him to get away from this HE the way he plays.

[FlyingStart]

[ QUOTE ]
(assuming GoG will be pot-committed and call.)

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a bad assumption. If GoG semibluffed this turn with a diamond (a holding I dont think is very likely) he will NOT call the push

[Parlay Slow]

A fold would be awful here, and you should be ashamed of your commentary in the Grimstarr thread

[Subfallen]

[ QUOTE ]
You know, flushes aren't the only hand ranking in poker. Some others include "two pair", "three of a kind" and "straight".

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, and the ever-popular "high card", I know, I know. But when GoG is making a nearly pot-committing raise on a 3-flush board, all those other hand rankings start to qualify as "bluffs"--or--"semi-bluffs."

So I'm trying to understand why GoG is expected to be bluffing enough to justify Grim's push.

[Subfallen]

[ QUOTE ]
A fold would be awful here, and you should be ashamed of your commentary in the Grimstarr thread

[/ QUOTE ]

Trust me, I've ashamed of every tragic moment I don't have the courage to end my pathetic excuse for a life. But you can repeat your verdict a few more times and, who knows, I just might find the balls.

[EC10]

folding here is retarded, and so is your "LETS ASSUME X% OF THE TIME, 28 HANDS ARE XY, Y% OF THE TIME" sklansky-esque NL fuzzy math.

[Subfallen]

[ QUOTE ]
folding here is retarded, and so is your "LETS ASSUME X% OF THE TIME, 28 HANDS ARE XY, Y% OF THE TIME" sklansky-esque NL fuzzy math.

[/ QUOTE ]

I suppose it's hopeless to ask you to name a few actual 2-card hands that GoG might be bluffing with; and why a player of GoG's caliber will be bluffing with these hands enough to justify pushing?

Also, I'm pretty sure I never claimed to be arguing a fold is correct; merely that I don't know why pushing is the play.