AK: TPTK meets weird resistance on A33 board + bad turn card?

Mitke · #1 11-15-2007, 03:10 AM

CO: 21/6/1.1 after 113 hands
BTN: 32/5/1.5 only 22 hands 

I'm dead cert CO is not isolating the very loose openlimper w/33 here, and almost as sure that BTN isn't coldcalling w/33. Flush draws don't look likely as A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is on the board and K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is in my hand. BTN hasn't shown any maniacal tendencies as far as I can recall.

Flop action is weird but my real troubles began on the turn.

Comments on turn and river are most welcome.

Poker Room skin Limit Holdem Ring game Limit: $2/$4 9 players Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
3 folds, MP2 calls (1.5:1), MP3 folds, CO raises, Button calls (4.5:2), Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, CO calls (8.5:1), Button calls (9.5:1).

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (9.5SB, 3 players)
Hero bets, CO calls (10.5:1), Button raises, Hero 3-bets, CO caps, Button calls (18.5:2), Hero calls (20.5:1).

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (10.75BB, 3 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Button raises, Hero calls (13.75:2), CO calls (15.75:1).

River: 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (16.75BB, 3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, Button bets, Hero calls (17.75:1), CO calls (18.75:1).

One Outer · #2 11-15-2007, 05:11 AM

I don't understand the action here at all. Why did you check the turn? And then call two cold? I'd like to hear a rationale behind this.

What do we think CO's opening range is here against the one loose limper? JTs+, A9s+, ATo+, 77+ or so? So if we can rule out 33 it can only be an A or a flush draw. But the button, if I'm understanding those PT stats correctly, is kind of loose, right?

Anyhow, I think your turn check is just a horrible idea. You're telling the CO that you're scared of something, and he puts you to a decision accordingly. He doesn't have to have AQ to make that play; given your action he can have any ace and even paired the Q in his flush draw or picked up a combo draw. So I'm not terribly worried about the CO.

Button is the really interesting hand here. Would he be capable of trying to squeeze you?

Man, this is a tough spot. It's tough for me to advocate folding because you've underrepresented your hand here. And I don't think QQ or 33 makes sense for either of them. As played I think the turn is a very tough call. I'm sorry, as I'm producing more questions than answers.

Of course, I think you should have bet/call one back on the turn and fold for two.

I know it doesn't mean anything because we're pretty much talking about the turn here, but the river action makes me think that you're beating CO but I still don't know about the button.

Mitke · #3 11-15-2007, 06:04 AM

CO is pretty tight, doesn't raise too much preflop but is admittedly capable of isolating loose-ish. I still think 33 is out of the question. The range you gave for CO isolating seems reasonable.

CO must have an A here the vast majority of the time, and I think it's big given he's TAGish. I really don't think call-cap(!) with a (Q-high e.g. w/Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]) FD is in his move arsenal. Not with the pair there, not because he isn't in position, and not because I'm certainly representing a big Ace on the flop - CO should be able to hand read that much. Mostly because he seems a straight-forward TAG.

BTN isn't overly loose so I do feel 33 isn't likely preflop (and it's only one combo anyway). He hasn't shown any maniacal tendencies before but is a pretty unknown quantity so far to me. I conclude there is a chance he is making moves here.

AA is not in either of these hands - no cap preflop.

After the tight CO capped flop I was thinking this is usually a split with him or he has AQ and BTN has an Ace as well, probably smaller than mine, as when getting ~9:1 he isn't going to call w/KK-TT. I think him raising my c-bet and CO call is an Ace most of the time. I really didn't consider BTN to be on a FD when I played this but that could actually be possible as he is raising from position.

There is a small chance he could be testing us with JJ or similar and put me on a KK-TT, CO on a FD and try to lose me from the pot.. but this is stretching things.

So to the turn... I try to go through my thinking here, and it is not to say it's particularly good thinking...

Q definitely felt like a scare card. I already thought I might be splitting with CO or that he had AQ, AJ just maayybe.

So, rationale for checking was that if CO has AK or AQ he is going to bet, BTN will probably call with his weaker Ace or something and I can get to showdown cheapish in a big pot when I'm now apparently (way ahead,) splitting or way behind CO. I considered BTN extra money in the pot at this time.

When it was two back I was cursing. (And we can lose the BTN FD theory here I think). And yet I kind of realized that I did underrep my hand on the turn and decided to call and get to showdown because I cannot be sure I'm beat - unless it gets any nastier.

I was sure both CO and BTN would go to showdown here. There would be probably 3 more BB to the pot from villains and I still had some outs to split or even win with K's and 3's (very few).

Yes, betting out and folding to 3-bet would have allowed me a way out of the hand.

Maaan did that check turn out to be a sucker...

Mitke · #4 11-15-2007, 06:22 AM

Hmm. I probably should have folded on the turn anyway, getting 3:16.75 in the best case to call-down.

One Outer · #5 11-15-2007, 06:31 AM

I think you have to give more consideration to CO having a flush draw. He just called the flop bet and then button raised. Once you three bet he knows that no one is folding on the flop and that since you both likely have an ace he has an equity advantage with his draw (maybe?), so he caps. That makes sense. It kind of reminds me of that pf play that James posted about a while back with 97s. It's his turn action that doesn't make any sense with his flush draw, unless he picked up more outs like he paired the Q or a gutshot. Then if he gets called in both spots he has an advantage. Is this plausible?

This is a really interesting hand, and it wouldn't be nearly as interesting if you had bet the turn. Plz do that next time.

Also, I'm going to go ahead and add that since we have a negligible number of hands on the button where he's 35% VPIP it might be most likely that he just sucks and has a 3. I'm just saying.

Mitke · #6 11-15-2007, 06:49 AM

I just think there many more Ax hands CO could play like this than there are FDs as both the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] are known for.

That leaves something like:

Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

This is wide-ish IMO because all and especially the lower end might rather lure in more people for multiway pot by calling. Maybe the three first could be isolating hands.

Betting out would indeed have been better.

One big reason for that is that BTN could be on a FD (+ middle pair). I think a FD fits his cold-call range better than CO's isolating range. This is of course something I completely overlooked while playing the hand.

One thing at play here is that as the pot gets this big people are more likely to make moves for it esp. if shown weird weakness like I did on the turn.

Mitke · #7 11-15-2007, 07:28 AM

I did some PokerStove on this to test how CO's equity with a FD would look like on the flop:

SB 3-bet range (Hero): { AA, AJs+, AQo+ } - equity = 50%

CO isolation range with spades only { QsJs, QsTs, JsTs, Js9s, Ts9s } - equity = 32%

BTN cold call range: { AQs-A9s, AQo-ATo } - equity 18%

BTN range doesn't include a spade draw because I can't get PokerStove to add a general range like AQs-A9s and the also a range of cards a particular suit - and I don't want to add all those Ax combinations of different suits by hand..

So, from CO's POV it could easily make sense to cap the turn with a FD as you mentioned.

BubbleMint · #8 11-15-2007, 07:55 AM

Button has a fairly high VPIP, why are holdings with a 3 being excluded ?

Calling 2 on the button with a suited hand including a 3 is entirely possible, even A3o calls 2 OTB in most games.

Ruling out AA for either player is also bad, not everyone insta caps AA pre flop.

I think I get away from this hand on the turn, button raised then called a cap on the flop, then raises the turn, he obviously loves his hand.
Not many people call on a capped street then raise the next without more than top pair.

Mitke · #9 11-15-2007, 08:13 AM

Maybe I was too bluntly disregarding 3's from the equation. There is the very loose openlimper that everyone must have noticed (vpip 75%+) so maybe BTN could cold call w/A3s in hope to brew a big pot, reading CO for loose isolation raise. However, I'm a TAG in SB, and BB was fairly tight as far I remember because I did eagerly wait for chances to steal so he doesn't have that a good chance to lure us blinds in (chances are he isn't paying attention though).

At best he can hope BB calls for a 4-way pot. I don't think calling two w/33 or A3s to 3-4 way raised pot is EV+ - I could be wrong. The two combinations of red A3s possible but I'd at least discount them based on preflop. 43s, 32s, 53s? Well.. maybe but not too often.

Of course the Villain could make the mistake all the same but he's not overly loose and that sample is very small.

Maybe ruling out AA totally is bad but I still think BTN would cap AA when he is obviously getting action and I don't think CO has much reason to slowplay it either preflop.

Yes, a fold would have been good on the turn.

chesspain · #10 11-15-2007, 08:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
BTN cold call range: { AQs-A9s, AQo-ATo } - equity 18%

BTN range doesn't include a spade draw because I can't get PokerStove to add a general range like AQs-A9s and the also a range of cards a particular suit - and I don't want to add all those Ax combinations of different suits by hand..

[/ QUOTE ]

Trying to afix Stove ranges to a fairly nondescript player on which you have only 22 hands seems pretty silly.