turn big pot ugh

[Vehn]

somewhat interesting spot here. One limper I raise 77, bad player calls button, good player calls sb, bad lag 3-bets from the BB everyone calls. Flop 9 6 2 rainbow, bb bets limper folds I raise button coldcalls (he may possibly have something in his hand relating to this board), sb calls (he surely does), bb 3-bets we all call. Turn 8, sb checks bb bets I call button calls sb raises bb 3-bets and its on me..?

[PokerBob]

this is 100% math.

looks to be 13.5BB in there once the turn hits. you have 8 outs that are likely all good, as no one has T8 here. if the turn gets CAPPED and you end up putting in 5 bets to the 10 of your opponents, you will be getting 23.5/5, which is 4.7/1. you make your hand 8 out of 46 times, which is basically breakeven in this spot. I doubt it gets capped, and you are likely to get more overlay than in my example. call.

[Vehn]

only if you can figure out the odds of being up against a made straight and the odds the turn gets capped on the fly

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
only if you can figure out the odds of being up against a made straight and the odds the turn gets capped on the fly

[/ QUOTE ]

i can. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Vehn]

[ QUOTE ]
this is 100% math.

looks to be 13.5BB in there once the turn hits. you have 8 outs that are likely all good, as no one has T8 here. if the turn gets CAPPED and you end up putting in 5 bets to the 10 of your opponents, you will be getting 23.5/5, which is 4.7/1. you make your hand 8 out of 46 times, which is basically breakeven in this spot. I doubt it gets capped, and you are likely to get more overlay than in my example. call.

[/ QUOTE ]

you're also forgetting about the times you're drawing to a chop

[Mr Rick]

[ QUOTE ]
this is 100% math.

looks to be 13.5BB in there once the turn hits. you have 8 outs that are likely all good, as no one has T8 here. if the turn gets CAPPED and you end up putting in 5 bets to the 10 of your opponents, you will be getting 23.5/5, which is 4.7/1. you make your hand 8 out of 46 times, which is basically breakeven in this spot. I doubt it gets capped, and you are likely to get more overlay than in my example. call.

[/ QUOTE ]
I disagree with your math because Vehn has already put one bet in and that can't be part of the calculation at the time of his decision (i.e. its no longer his money, its part of the pot)... At this point Vehn has to put in 2BB to win 21.5BB (13.5 after the flop + 1 from Vehn + 1 from button + 3 each from SB and BB).

Worst case scenario is if SB and BB do cap it (I assume its a 5 bet cap here) and button drops out. Vehn would have to put in 4 more bets to win 25.5BB (21.5 + 2 from SB + 2 from BB)). That is very close to 6.5:1 pot odds.

The actual odds of hitting the straight are slightly better than 5:1 so this is a clear call in the worst case scenario given the following assumptions:
1) It is extremely unlikely that anyone has T8 with this action (it is less than a 10% probability).
2) The 8 either completed the rainbow, or we are eliminating the possibility of a back door flush. Again this is a very low probability - and if it is possible the likeliest candidate would be the button, so we would have to add in 4BB to the amount Vehn would win making it a better than 7:1 shot to win (dropping our outs from 8 to 6 which) with 7.5:1 pot odds.
3) Edit: Vehn makes a good point about the chop. The assumption is that there is little chance of a chop. If Vehn feels that there is a signicant chance of a chop then the pot odds should be reduced by 1/2 of that %. For example if it is a 20% chance of chopping then drop the pot odds by 10% from 6.5:1 to just under 6:1.

I also agree with PokerBob that there is a high probability this doesn't get capped.

And yes, like PokerBob, I do this math at the table at the time to bet. If this sounds arrogant I don't mean it that way. My math skills compensate a little for my poker weaknesses...