Countering a powerful play....

[midnightpulp]

You know the drill, it's folded to you on the CO or the Button and you find A9 and raise, the BB, who you have little info on, defends.

Rags flop. He of course, as you were expecting, check-raises you. The turn is a blank, you consider showing down A high, but find it better to fold.

Another hand, same situation. This time you find QJ. Same order of events. You'd like to showdown, but don't really have the hand to do so. Once again, you fold, irritated at the fact that this same opponent may have outplayed you two times in a row.

However, maybe he really did have it?

I think this alwaya a tough spot to navigate against a player whom you have little information on. Curious as to where we stand against an opponent's "likely" (we have to assume here) calling range, I ran some Stove.

Board: 8d 6s Qh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.569% 51.70% 02.87% 1696785 94072.50 { A9o }
Hand 1: 45.431% 42.57% 02.87% 1396920 94072.50 { 55-22, A8s-A2s, KTs-K2s, QTs-Q7s, J8s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A9o-A2o, KTo-K7o, QTo-Q9o, J9o+, T9o }

When we have two overcards:

Board: 8d 6s 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.066% 55.34% 01.73% 1829175 57190.50 { A9o }
Hand 1: 42.934% 41.20% 01.73% 1362054 57190.50 { 55-22, A8s-A2s, KTs-K2s, QTs-Q7s, J8s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A9o-A2o, KTo-K7o, QTo-Q9o, J9o+, T9o }

When we have Queen high (three ragged flops):

Board: 6s Jc 2d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.607% 32.87% 01.74% 1190985 62950.50 { QTo }
Hand 1: 65.393% 63.66% 01.74% 2306514 62950.50 { 55-22, A8s-A2s, KTs-K2s, QTs-Q7s, J8s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A9o-A2o, KTo-K7o, QTo-Q9o, J9o+, T9o }


---



---
3,623,400 games 0.076 secs 47,676,315 games/sec

Board: 6s 2d 6d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.591% 33.62% 02.97% 1218249 107590.50 { QTo }
Hand 1: 63.409% 60.44% 02.97% 2189970 107590.50 { 55-22, A8s-A2s, KTs-K2s, QTs-Q7s, J8s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A9o-A2o, KTo-K7o, QTo-Q9o, J9o+, T9o }


---



---
3,480,840 games 0.036 secs 96,689,999 games/sec

Board: 6s 2d Kh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.980% 35.01% 01.97% 1218807 68410.50 { QTo }
Hand 1: 63.020% 61.05% 01.97% 2125212 68410.50 { 55-22, A8s-A2s, KTs-K2s, QTs-Q7s, J8s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A9o-A2o, KTo-K7o, QTo-Q9o, J9o+, T9o }

And of course, as your cards decline in high value so does your equity.

Since the flop check-raise from the BB against a stealer is such a widely used play, I think it's reasonable to go to SD with a strong Ace (on a favorable board texture) against an unknown the majority of the time.

Also, if you have an opponent in the blinds who is habitually doing this you and your cards have lacked SD strength each time, it might be worth tightening up for a while and only stealing with your better hands. Maybe the top twenty percent. This will help prevent your opponents from taking shots at you and also help with your table image. Once established, you use your new image to steal more with marginal to even poor hands.

FWIW, here's a defender's EQ against a player who steals with around thirty-five percent of his hands:

Board: Qc 5h 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.240% 50.63% 02.61% 722258 37259.00 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A2o+, K8o+, Q9o+, JTo }
Hand 1: 46.760% 44.15% 02.61% 629814 37259.00 { A8s }
---
1,380,060 games 0.034 secs 40,590,000 games/sec

Board: Qc 4c Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.649% 54.52% 04.13% 752443 56950.00 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A2o+, K8o+, Q9o+, JTo }
Hand 1: 41.351% 37.22% 04.13% 513717 56950.00 { A8s }

As expected Ace High is very strong in both spots, even when there's 2 overs on the board.
---
1,549,350 games 0.037 secs 41,874,324 games/sec

Board: Qc 5h 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 74.596% 74.23% 00.36% 1150129 5626.50 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A2o+, K8o+, Q9o+, JTo }
Hand 1: 25.404% 25.04% 00.36% 387968 5626.50 { 98s }

A lowly nine high has a a quarter of the pot and is probably worth a semi-bluff/bluff against tighter opponents. Your fold EQ doesn't even have to be that high in this spot. Your opponent will likely bet any two here, which will make the pot 5.5 SB, a C/R and continuation turn bet cost 4SB, so you're getting 3 to 2 on the play, not to mention you still might pair up and win outright.

Considering all this, the BB check-raising a liberal late position stealer is a very powerful play and extemely difficult to counter.

But, look what happens when the stealer decides to tighten up and raise with only the top twenty percent:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 67.179% 65.02% 02.16% 542000 17993.00 { 55+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+ }
Hand 1: 32.821% 30.66% 02.16% 255594 17993.00 { A8s }

A 14 point drop. It's still worth it for the BB to make a play, but now the stealer can be more confident in going to SD against the BB's likely range.

In conclusion, it's my opinion that tightening up is a strong counter-strategy against a defender who has been constantly check-raising the flop.

Of course, I'm not suggesting to turn into a rock. Like I said earlier in the post, just tighten up for awhile until your opponent has some respect and becomes conditioned to not play back at you as much.

Would love to hear how you guys prefer to counter such an opponent?

[bigmac366]

is calling the flop check raise and raising any turn for a free showdown bad? it would fold out unpaired hands and get us to showdown for the same price as calling down.

[TheHip41]

playing HU is small pots when you don't flop a pair against a decent opponent, is in my opinion, the toughest spot in limit holdem.

if you figure this out, you are going to make lots of $$$

[sharpie]

It's a tough play to get right on the other end, though. If you're regularly check/raising air then the vilain will call down with at least any ace high or better, and it usually doesn't work often enough putting in 2BB to win 3BB. So you need to pick your boards and only do it a certain frequency of the time, and even then TAGs calldown too light so it might not even be worth doing against most.

I think most players that will check/raise the flop with air do it too much, so they're pretty easy to play against, although it can be annoying when you pick up queen high, or end up calling down with A2 and find out you were drawing to 3 outs. Good TAGs are the toughest ones to deal with, but that's poker.

[GrindingIt]

It's a tough spot, especially when you are continually missing and think you're being pushed around. The more I play the less I fold these but it's highly player dependent and I don't think a default line will work. Against really agressive opponents I like the turn raise a decent amount of the time but you have to mix it up if they have any brain. Against passive players I'm more likely to fold. Previous hands also have a lot of affect on how likely you are to be getting bluffed.