whaddayathink? bet this river against these monkeys?

[OziBattler]

Whatchathink? do we go ahead and bet this river? comments on other streets also appreciated

BB is a somewhat of a 30/8 LAG that goes to SD > 50% of the time.
UTG+1 is a 75/18 maniac but he hasnt LRR before
UTG+2 is a total fish playing half his hands and consistently takes a super-marginal hand to the bitter end even in the face of obvious aggression, hoping to get lucky.
MP3 is also a total monkey like UTG+2 but can find a fold sometimes.

Paradise Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.50/$1
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Ozi is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 2 folds, MP3 calls, CO folds, <font color="#cc0000">Ozi raises</font>, SB folds, BB calls, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 3-bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP3 calls, Ozi calls, BB calls.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (15.5SB, 5 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, MP3 folds, Ozi calls, BB calls.

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (9.75BB, 4 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets</font>, UTG+2 calls, Ozi calls, BB calls.

River: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (13.75BB, 4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, Ozi ????

[Bona]

I just check it through. UTG1 LRR is a big pair most of the time. As a matter of fact the entire range of that play is typically AA-KK.

And then on the practical side who would call your river bet and with what. Mostly only hands we can't beat I think.

Even though the river checks are a sign we may be ahead here. Even though you haven't been the aggressor so you might get a call or two. I still check it through because of UTG1 play. He may fear the flush enough to check/call the river.

[JoseyWales]

This is difficult when UTG+1 is maniac. Normally I fold on flop, but against maniac might call it. After turn hits I'd c-c turn and river. Sounds to me that we have some passive opponets here. Someone could easily have weak king. I don't understand why maniac slows down on river, but I still wouldn't bet. I don't like our situation enough to bet, especially against large field.

I think LRR could also be two suited cards. Often it's big pair, but with maniac it can be anything. On the other hand maniacs often slowplay their strongest holdings.

[kerowo]

Against someone like this I'm tempted to cap the flop but I doubt that makes much sense in this hand, it's not getting rid of anyone. I'm real tempted to pop the turn but hate that K on the flop. I think you have to just call the river, it looks like UTG+1 is either afraid of the flush with his lrr 99 or is trying to c/r his own flush. The last hand I'd give someone with his stats credit for is AA/KK.

[sean c]

I cap pre flop for sure.

[DrModern]

It's tough to say what the LRR means from someone this obviously maniacal. With this many people jammed in preflop, I'd give some consideration to capping. Unless you strongly suspect that the LRR is AA or KK then capping is an immediately +EV move.

I like your flop and turn play. The flop is a peel with your 3ish outs, and I don't think you have enough hand on the turn to pop it, but you probably want to showdown against the maniac now.

I don't really want to bet the river, as I doubt I'll get value from a worse hand often enough in this multiway pot with the K on the board, so I check and see what happens.

[threads13]

I check this one behind. You have second pair and a flush card just came with 3 opponents in.

[sean c]

[ QUOTE ]
This is difficult when UTG+1 is maniac. Normally I fold on flop, but against maniac might call it.

[/ QUOTE ]

He has the odds to call the flop bet regardless of who makes it. It also isn't likely that he will get check/raised given his reads. Maybe from the BB but i call here anyway.

[JoseyWales]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is difficult when UTG+1 is maniac. Normally I fold on flop, but against maniac might call it.

[/ QUOTE ]

He has the odds to call the flop bet regardless of who makes it. It also isn't likely that he will get check/raised given his reads. Maybe from the BB but i call here anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right of course, I see it now. The pot is huge.

[sean c]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is difficult when UTG+1 is maniac. Normally I fold on flop, but against maniac might call it.

[/ QUOTE ]

He has the odds to call the flop bet regardless of who makes it. It also isn't likely that he will get check/raised given his reads. Maybe from the BB but i call here anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right of course, I see it now. The pot is huge.

[/ QUOTE ]

Its pretty close and getting check/raised here would suck. I much rather be closing the action but yeah the pot is big.