$11s - This might be OK but then again... I'm me,

K䲰䮥n · #1 09-10-2006, 03:32 PM

Villain is passive post flop and pre flop. 40/0. This does not feel clear to me. Explain, please.

PartyPoker $11 Speed Tournament, Big Blind is t100 (8 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t1860)
UTG+1 (t5930)
MP1 (t1320)
MP2 (t1730)
CO (t2190)
Button (t2830)
Hero (t1740)
BB (t2400)

Preflop: Hero is in SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls t100, CO folds, Button folds, Hero raises to t300, BB folds, MP2 calls t250

Flop: (t800) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets t400, MP2 raises to t1380 (All-in), Hero calls t980

Prodigy54321 · #2 09-10-2006, 03:37 PM

seems good to me..I might raise a tad more preflop or bet a little more on the flop..otherwise, it pretty much plays itself

DevinLake · #3 09-10-2006, 03:43 PM

I call. He has an over pair or flush draw enough here for it to be profitable. Even if you are up against a set, you have the spade draw. The only hand you have to be worried about is a made flush, or a slowly playd AA/KK with a spade.

K䲰䮥n · #4 09-10-2006, 04:08 PM

Again a converter mistake. I did raise to t350 PF.

ManChild · #5 09-10-2006, 04:52 PM

This hand looks very very standard, he will often have just a flush draw, or an overpair <QQ

Gelford · #6 09-10-2006, 05:00 PM

I'd insta call.

I smells like an resteal attempt, It is a very scary board and villian might pull a stunt like this with air because of this. He might have a pair and put you on overs .. he might think you are stealing

And even if he has a flush, you are getting the right price to chase. Only two cards have you worried, and they have to be either suited or part of a pocket pair to make you lay this down.

PS. I'd bet 250 pf, which is what I always bet whether stealing or not.

JacJacAtk · #7 09-10-2006, 05:04 PM

Everyone who puts villain on "just" a flush draw, lets be clear that the most likely flush draws are actually ahead here. The naked As has outs to any 4 and the remaining aces to win as well, the naked Ks is probably working with the same number of outs since it will often be paired with an ace itself.

Getting 2.5-1 to call the all-in, you probably have to call, but I think the range of a passive villain contains a lot more coin-flips here than hands Hero is crushing.

Gelford · #8 09-10-2006, 05:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Everyone who puts villain on "just" a flush draw, lets be clear that the most likely flush draws are actually ahead here. The naked As has outs to any 4 and the remaining aces to win as well, the naked Ks is probably working with the same number of outs since it will often be paired with an ace itself.

Getting 2.5-1 to call the all-in, you probably have to call, but I think the range of a passive villain contains a lot more coin-flips here than hands Hero is crushing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless you haven't noticed it, the naked A or K is a 1.4 to 1 dog vs Hero with the pot giving a massive overlay already, and villain range is a lot wider than hands containing the A or K of spades.

In the unlikely event of AK with one being a spade, then it is a coinflip ... but again ... overlay.

flyty86 · #9 09-10-2006, 05:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Everyone who puts villain on "just" a flush draw, lets be clear that the most likely flush draws are actually ahead here. The naked As has outs to any 4 and the remaining aces to win as well, the naked Ks is probably working with the same number of outs since it will often be paired with an ace itself.

Getting 2.5-1 to call the all-in, you probably have to call, but I think the range of a passive villain contains a lot more coin-flips here than hands Hero is crushing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless you haven't noticed it, the naked A or K is a 1.4 to 1 dog vs Hero with the pot giving a massive overlay already, and villain range is a lot wider than hands containing the A or K of spades.

In the unlikely event of AK with one being a spade, then it is a coinflip ... but again ... overlay.

[/ QUOTE ]

a naked ace of spades is not a 1.4 to 1 dog versus queens here. ur missed some outs, probably the wheel draw.

AK with one spade is actually a favorite to win the hand.

the hand plays itself, btw

JacJacAtk · #10 09-10-2006, 05:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Everyone who puts villain on "just" a flush draw, lets be clear that the most likely flush draws are actually ahead here. The naked As has outs to any 4 and the remaining aces to win as well, the naked Ks is probably working with the same number of outs since it will often be paired with an ace itself.

Getting 2.5-1 to call the all-in, you probably have to call, but I think the range of a passive villain contains a lot more coin-flips here than hands Hero is crushing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless you haven't noticed it, the naked A or K is a 2-1 dog vs Hero with the pot giving a massive overlay already, and villain range is a lot wider than hands containing the A or K of spades.

[/ QUOTE ]

The naked As is not a 2-1 dog when any A/4/spade makes a better hand than Hero. Then there's AsKx and AxKs which can hit the K too.

And I realize that getting 2.5-1 probably makes it a call anyway, but the outcome of this hand isn't as rosy as "just a flush draw" makes it seem. Other than an indeterminate number of overpairs below QQ, what hands do we think a passive villain makes this play with which Hero is crushing? I think Hero's behind but getting odds versus a set or made lower flush sometimes, behind and getting nice odds versus Ax/Kx hands that have a better draw a fair bit, while occassionally crushing worse PP and Ax no spade hands and alternately being crushed by made better flushes. I'll leave it to someone else to figure out the distributions of the various hands to determine if the 2.5-1 price is good overall (as I said here, and previously, I suspect it is).