Representing an Ace vs probable AA or KK

[WoolyHat]

I've had two almost identical hands in tournaments recently like the one below. I believe Villian in this hand to be weak tightish.

Hand 1 Stars $10+R, 2nd hour, blinds 200/400 w/ 25 ante

Hero and villian are both stacked at about 20k

Preflop

Folded to Hero who open raises to 1400 in LP with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], folded to villian in SB who min-raises, BB folds, Hero calls.

Okay, generally you'll just have to trust my read here. But, I've twice seen villian call raises from the blinds with AK, and I've never seen them re-raise pf before. So I squarely put them on AA or KK (with a small possibility of QQ) after their preflop re-raise. I call preflop for set value.

Flop (Pot: 3200) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Villian leads for 1500, Hero raises to 6000...

Okay, so before villian acts on the flop I decide that 66% of the time (possibly more if you sometimes give them QQ) they hate that flop. 33% of the time they love it. I decide this is a good chance to run a bluff.

I do this is cash games when I have enough history on villian to be confident in my read. I rarely have that history in tournaments. So, firstly, specifically in this hand, do people think this is a +EV bluff (obviously I'm giving up if villian calls / raises)?

Also, if I have villian specifically on AA and KK and the flop comes A high, what % do you give to each of those hands when they

a) check the flop
b) lead for <1/2 pot on the flop
c) lead for around 1/2 pot on the flop
d) lead for full pot on the flop

[Boxman]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero and villian are both stacked at about 20k

Flop (Pot: 3200) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Villian leads for 1500, Hero raises to 6000...

(obviously I'm giving up if villian calls / raises)?

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate putting in 1/3 my stack only to lay it down if Villain comes over the top. The bluff is okay given your read and that you have position, but I think raising t3500 will get the same response.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, if I have villian specifically on AA and KK and the flop comes A high, what % do you give to each of those hands when they

[/ QUOTE ]

a) check the flop
AA: 80% / KK:25%

b) lead for <1/2 pot on the flop
AA: 10% / KK:25%

c) lead for around 1/2 pot on the flop
AA: 10% / KK:25%

d) lead for full pot on the flop
AA: 0% / KK:25%

The above percentages is opinion only.

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hero and villian are both stacked at about 20k

Flop (Pot: 3200) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Villian leads for 1500, Hero raises to 6000...

(obviously I'm giving up if villian calls / raises)?

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate putting in 1/3 my stack only to lay it down if Villain comes over the top. The bluff is okay given your read and that you have position, but I think raising t3500 will get the same response.

[/ QUOTE ]
No, we can't raise that little. It's too easy for Villain to call with KK if it's only 1700 more. When Villain leads for 1500 into the 3200 pot, we need to raise to 5000 at least.