200 6m: t8s on a huge draw on flop

[effinA]

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
5 players
Converter

Button ($166.65)
SB ($201)
BB ($260.05)
Hero ($230.50)
MP ($194.15)


Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is UTG with t[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero raises to $8, CO raises to $15, 3 folds, Hero calls.


Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($33, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $30, Hero ?

no reads on villain, do i raise, but i dont think he'll let his over pair go
if i call whats my plan on the turn.....
if i do raise, should i just c/r ai?

[krishan]

Aren't you likely a favorite over an overpair? I think I push. 60$ in pot is quite tasty.

Krishan

[wuarhg]

i look for the bet-3bet allin on this flop

Edit: WTF? Tc8c vs AdAh is only 21.28% equity on 7h 4c 6c flop?

Edit #2: ok nvm, I input the board wrong in Pokerstove

[effinA]

we're even money....but i dont think he'll fold his ovr pr

is pushing better than calling??

[wuarhg]

You think he'll call 88-JJ?

[krishan]

[ QUOTE ]
we're even money....but i dont think he'll fold his ovr pr

is pushing better than calling??

[/ QUOTE ]

Board: 7s 6s 4h
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 55.8081 % 55.35% 00.45% { Ts8s }
Hand 2: 44.1919 % 43.74% 00.45% { QdQh }

We are a favorite, there is dead money in the pot. He could still have AK. Push.

Krishan

[effinA]

[ QUOTE ]
You think he'll call 88-JJ?

[/ QUOTE ]

at the 200nl tables....ull see this range call all day

[Bulldog]

[ QUOTE ]
we're even money....but i dont think he'll fold his ovr pr

is pushing better than calling??

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you are 5:4 favorite vs overpair on this flop. <font color="red">Push.</font> He will put his money in now with the overpair, but you think he will still put it in if a five or a club comes on the turn? Offsuit nine is the only sneaky card that will get you paid after you get there almost all the time.

[effinA]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
we're even money....but i dont think he'll fold his ovr pr

is pushing better than calling??

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you are 5:4 favorite vs overpair on this flop. <font color="red">Push.</font> He will put his money in now with the overpair, but you think he will still put it in if a five or a club comes on the turn? Offsuit nine is the only sneaky card that will get you paid after you get there almost all the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

yea i know this....but all this high variance poker really gets to me when it doesnt hit.....its a huge confidence hitter......and i did push and NO, it didnt get there

[supercomputer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
we're even money....but i dont think he'll fold his ovr pr

is pushing better than calling??

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you are 5:4 favorite vs overpair on this flop. <font color="red">Push.</font> He will put his money in now with the overpair, but you think he will still put it in if a five or a club comes on the turn? Offsuit nine is the only sneaky card that will get you paid after you get there almost all the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

yea i know this....but all this high variance poker really gets to me when it doesnt hit.....its a huge confidence hitter......and i did push and NO, it didnt get there

[/ QUOTE ]

All poker is high variance. Embrace it.