$400NL on Stars...tough river spot

[boltonflats]

Villian is 38/8/1 over ~100 hands. I'm probably seen as TAG.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($652.35)
SB ($188)
BB ($129.20)
UTG ($272.45)
UTG+1 ($315.90)
MP1 ($344)
MP2 ($276.50)
MP3 ($503)
CO ($465)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, Q.
[color=#666666]1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $4, [color=#666666]1 fold</font>, MP2 calls $4, [color=#666666]2 folds</font>, [color=#CC3333]Hero raises to $16</font>, [color=#666666]2 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls $12, MP2 calls $12.

Flop: ($54) 6, 3, 7 [color=#0000FF](3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, [color=#CC3333]Hero bets $36</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls $36.

Turn: ($126) Q [color=#0000FF](2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, [color=#CC3333]Hero bets $80</font>, MP2 calls $80.

River: ($286) J [color=#0000FF](2 players)</font>
[color=#CC3333]MP2 bets $144.5 (All-In)</font>, Hero ??

[CalledDownLight]

Call the river because of all the busted draws.

[BT2]

i would fold unless i had some history with villain. however, calling is not horrible.

[TheProdigy]

With the flush draws it can't be a horrible call..Him being 38/8 means it is more likely to be a flush draw here..

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $244.20
BB: $195.00
Hero (UTG): $318.00
UTG+1: $385.65
MP1: $144.40
MP2: $200.00
MP3: $206.35
CO: $197.00
BTN: $657.35

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (9 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $8.00</font>, 3 folds, MP3 calls $8.00, 4 folds

Flop: ($19) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $12.00</font>, MP3 calls $12.00

Turn: ($43) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $22.00</font>, MP3 calls $22.00

River: ($87) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">MP3 bets $44.00</font>, Hero calls $44.00

Pot Size: $175.00 ($3 Rake)

MP3 had 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (a pair of Queens) and LOST (-$86.00)
Hero had A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (two pair, Aces and Queens) and WON (+$86.00)

[soah]

your hand is a lot different because you induced the bluff by showing weakness on the river and making rather smallish bets on the flop and turn

in OP's hand he has shown aggression at every opportunity

[soah]

pf is sorta gross, either make a big raise or don't raise at all, I'd much rather steal the limps than build a pot with this sorta trashy hand

again, on the flop, not a fan of the bet sizing, ideally I want the pot to be at a size where if I improve I can get the rest of the money in with a single bet, and really I'd just be happy to win the pot right away anyway. a bigger bet will make them more likely to call instead of raise, and more likely to fold instead of call, and when I do get called I have good equity so the extra money that goes in doesn't really cost me anything in the long run

given how you've gotten to the river I don't see how you can be good... this guy is not aggressive, and you've given him no reason to think that you will fold...

[TheProdigy]

[ QUOTE ]
your hand is a lot different because you induced the bluff by showing weakness on the river and making rather smallish bets on the flop and turn

in OP's hand he has shown aggression at every opportunity

[/ QUOTE ]

Flop was just the standard amount for a cbet, mainly because I get played back at a lot because of my stats but the turn was trying to get a raise from a bad player.

Mainly what I was saying is people do stupid things with draws, and him being 38/8/1 means he could very well make a stupid play with a draw. It was just trying to make an illustration of bad players always trying to take down the pot with a missed draw...

[soah]

another thing to consider is that with a naked jack he checks and hopes he's good, and we have the Qh and the 9h... so... start looking at what flush draws he can have that don't include a Qh, Jh, 9h, 7h, or 6h, and are not 5h4h (and presumably not AhKh either, given pf and his stats). Then compare that to your hand where all but the Qd and 6d are live and zero of those combos have realistic showdown value. I suppose the 5d has a bit of value, but he can easily choose to represent a Q instead to fold out better pairs... which brings us back to the fact that the situations are totally different, your board has a clear hand to represent, and your actions have made it clear that you don't have that hand. OP's board has nothing specific to represent and the guy has no reason to think he can get a fold.

[diebitter]

I call this - them's good odds. And pretty much nothing he shows would surprise me.

[boltonflats]

While I agree soah that if I wanted to just take down the hand right now, I would have been raising to 20/24 instead of 16. With the 2 limpers, I don't might seeing a flop in position against them as I feel I can outplay them, even with a so-so hand. Also, this villian was calling any raise I made after limping, no matter 3x, 4x or 5x the bb. On the flop, pot bet would have been ok, but I wanted to control the pot size, so I bet ~2/3rds on a flop that wasnt half bad for my hand. On the turn, I like my hand even more of course, but then he smooth calls again with a 2/3rd pot bet.

My thought process...either a busted straight, flush draw, or, a monster like a set or straight already. Only hands I could put him on.