NOV 29th Premium Service Plays

[PNBkid]

Burns Thursday Night GOY


DALLAS (-7 or better)

Game: Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys Game Time: 11/29/2007 8:15:00 PM Prediction: Dallas Cowboys Reason: I'm laying the points with DALLAS. Its been an amazing run for Favre and the Packers and they've cost me more than once this season. That being said, I successfully played against the Packers the only previous time that they lost (vs. Chicago) and I feel strongly that they'll finally go down a second time on Thursday. The stats will show that the Packers have the better defense as they are allowing 16.8 points per game while the Cowboys are allowing 20.1. However, it's not entirely fair to compare those stats as the Cowboys have faced the Patriots while the Packers have only faced one team (the Giants) that currently has more than six wins. Note that the Packers caught the Giants when they were really struggling and that the Cowboys have also beaten them twice, each time by double-digits. Anyway, take away the 48 points that the Pats put up, and the Cowboys have allowed an average of just 17 points per game, almost the identical number that the Packers have allowed. Additionally, the Cowboys defense comes off an absolutely dominant effort, holding the Jets to three points and a mere 180 total yards. Conversely, the Packers allowed the Lions to score 26 points on 331 total yards. Favre's exceptional play notwithstanding, the Cowboys have been the much better offensive team, as they are averaging 32.5 points per game while the Packers are managing 26.9. The Cowboys offense racked up 174 total rushing yards last week, their highest total this season. Note that the Cowboys haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in 13 games and that they held the Jets to a season low 60 yards on the ground. I also feel it's signficant that the Cowboys are coming off a non-conference game and playing their second straight at home while the Packers are coming off a big divisional win and playing their second straight road game. In addition to the situation and venue in their favor, I simply believe that the Cowboys are the better all around team. They know the extreme importance of this game and I look for them to improve to 7-1 ATS (8-0 SU) against conference opponents while the Packers fall to 2-6 ATS the last eight times that they were coming off a win over a divisional opponent. *Thursday GOY


Burns college football

LOUISVILLE (-4 or better)

Game: Rutgers vs. Louisville Game Time: 11/29/2007 7:45:00 PM Prediction: Louisville Reason: I'm laying the points with LOUISVILLE. You may recall that last year's game was labeled the "Game of the Century." The Cardinals jumped out to an 18-point lead but the Scarlet Knights rallied all the way back for a 28-25 win. That loss ruined the Cardinals' shot at competing for the national title and was the only blemish on last season's 12-1 record. Its safe to say that the Cardinals have NOT forgotten that painful loss and/or the largest crowd in Rutgers history storming the field afterwards. Prior to their bye week, the Cardinals lost on the road vs. a tough South Florida team. That's worth noting as we find them at 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) since the start of the 2005 season when coming off a loss vs. a conference opponent. While they've been inconsistent, the Cardinals have also proven that they are more than capable of rising to the occasion when properly motivated. Just ask Cincinnati as the Cardinals handed them their first loss and sent their season into a tailspin. The Cardinals beat Pittsburgh by seven points in their most recent game here, improving to 18-2 in 20 home games over the past 36 months. Note that ALL 18 victories came by a minimum of six points. This season, the Cardinals have averaged a whopping 45 points and 576 total yards in their five games. Its also worth noting that the Cardinals are 8-2 ATS the last 10 times that they were favored by four points or less. The Scarlet Knights barely beat Pittsburgh in their last game and they got crushed 38-19 at Connecticut the last time that they played a conference road game. The Cardinals won 56-5 when these teams met here in 2005. While tonight's game isn't likely to be nearly that lopsided, I still expect another convincing win and cover for the revenge-minded home side. *Thursday Night Roast

[PNBkid]

Wild Bill

NCAAF GOY L'ville Cards -3 over Rutgers 10 units

Over the total 1 unit

Over Packer and Cowboys 2 units

[PNBkid]

MTI Sports --> If you buy Director Sports or follow HIZZ "THE PLAGERIZER" HONOR save your money - these are where they steal the plays from:


newsletter best bet
5*

5-Star Green Bay +6’ over DALLAS—This game seems destined
to be decided on the final drive, as both offense have quick-strike
potential. When the game is going to be decided late, the points are
the way to go. Green Bay is off two double-digit wins, so their defense
hasn’t been asked for a supreme effort to stop a drive that might
determine the outcome of the game. This should have them 100%
fresh and rarin’ to go here. The Packers are 8-0 ATS when they were
up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week on
the road, covering the spread by an average of 17.2 ppg. Also, Green
Bay is 8-0 ATS the week after scoring 34+ points on the road, covering
the spread by a staggering 19.6 ppg. This latter trend is featured
in the space below. The SDQL text is given as well as the complete
game listing. In the ATSm column we can see that the packers have
covered the spread by double-digits in each of the eight qualifying
games. Also, it can bee seen that the packers have already produced
one winner in this situation this season, when they beat the Chargers
31-24 getting 4’ at home in week 3.
The Packers scored 36 points last week, but three times they were
forced to kick short field goals. Mason Crosby kicked TWO 20-
yarders and a 26-yarder for the Packers. We look for more efficiency
from inside the 10-yard line here, as the Packers are a perfect 10-0
ATS on the road after a game in which they failed to get in the end
zone on at least one goal-to-go, covering the spread by an average of
14.9 ppg. This fabulous team trend already has produced two winners
this season.
The Cowboys also played on Thanksgiving and they also had
an easy time of it, winning 34-3 over the Jets. Dallas held the Jets
pathetic offense to only 9 first downs and 22:08 of possession time.
The Cowboys offense had ten first downs rushing and 11 first downs
passing. The Cowboys, unlike the Packers, lose their toughness and
edge after an easy win.
Cowboys are only 4-7 SU in this situation, disappointing the linesmakers
by an average of 12.0 ppg.
In addition, the Cowboys are 0-12 ATS as a favorite the week
after a home game in which they had at least three more minutes of
possession time than their season-to-date average, failing to cover by
an average of 10.5 ppg. Also, Dallas is 0-7 ATS the week after a win
in which they got at least ten first downs via the rush.
Finally, we have a great league-wide system that involves games
between teams with the same record. When a team is playing their
second straight road game vs a team with the same record and their
previous game was not a blowout (decided by fewer than 20 points),
the team is 14-0 ATS covering by an average of 9.6 ppg. Both the
Packers and the Cowboys are 10-1 on the season, the Packers were
on the road last week and Green Bay game vs the Lions was decided
by fewer than 20 points. This means that the Packers qualify for
this same-record system, which has already produced two winners
this season. Grab the points as Dallas is over-rated and the Packers
are getting better each week. A moneyline play should be strongly
considered as well.
MTi’s FORECAST: Green Bay 37 Dallas 24

[PNBkid]

Gator Report (Cajun-Sports)

Analysis: Both teams enter this contest with 10-1 records on the season. Both have not had any trouble scoring points this season and we look for an easy over here tonight. We have a system that says to Play Over NFL teams against the total after 3 or more consecutive wins facing an opponent after 4 or more consecutive wins, 107-60 Over since 1983. We also know the Packers are 7-0 Over on the road the week after they had at least 100 yards more offense than their season to date average. The Cowboys are 9-0 Over when their opponent is off two 10+ wins. PLAY: GREEN BAY / DALLAS OVER 51.5

[PNBkid]

3* DALLAS over Green Bay by 17 (THURSDAY)
Another Salvo from Nick's big gun

[PNBkid]

Pointwise Newsletter

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Lousiville 31 Rutgers 27

Dallas 30 Green Bay 26

[FieryJustice]

ok, im a total sportsbetting fish, but if we look at all these pics and bet on only the games that most of these guys agree on, do you think it would be +ev?

[MicroBob]

probably not.
but even if you tried it would be difficult to determine what 'most' means because there are so many of these guys.

Now if you wanted to do something like just taking 10 of the more popular guys or just 10 guys you like and seeing who they favor then I still think you won't do very well.
These guys come to some wacky conclusions.
Adding them all together doesn't make them any less wacky.

If anything, I wonder if taking the opposite of their majority pick might have value in a pseudo-related BSP kind of way but I kind of doubt that to similar to fgators silly idea of fading the newspaper columnists' picks that he posted awhile back.

[CardSharpCook]

I gots me some Rutgers. de iz goot.

[PNBkid]

[ QUOTE ]
ok, im a total sportsbetting fish, but if we look at all these pics and bet on only the games that most of these guys agree on, do you think it would be +ev?

[/ QUOTE ]


NOT A GOOD IDEA.