200nl Top pair vs 38/21/oo

pdoran10 · #1 09-23-2007, 05:16 AM

Villain in this hand has been playing with these stats over about 100 hands. He's the kind of player who you want at your table, has been showing when he makes big bluffs, sucks postflop, cant hand read, etc. Villain should view me as an aggressive TAG somewhere around 21/17 if he has enough of a brain to notice. So my plan preflop is to call with the intention of checkraising a decent range of flops that either miss a lot of hands, or make a hand for me. The river really isnt looking like a great board and when he calls the turn i am pretty much lost. c/f? c/c? shove?
i think you could make an argument for all three. what do you guys think?

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 4 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $313.20
Hero (BB): $288.20
UTG: $197.00
BTN: $235.15

Preflop: Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 Players)
UTG folds, BTN raises to $6.00, SB folds, Hero calls $4.00

Flop: ($13) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $8.00, Hero raises to $24.00, BTN calls $16.00

Turn: ($61) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets $40.00, BTN calls $40.00

River: ($141) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)

Fonkey123 · #2 09-23-2007, 05:22 AM

lol wow this sucks. bet 20 dollars and call a shove or just c/f

cowpig · #3 09-23-2007, 05:25 AM

b/f. he definitely has something with showdown equity so he's not going to bluffraise you.

Fonkey123 · #4 09-23-2007, 05:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
b/f. he definitely has something with showdown equity so he's not going to bluffraise you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Literally every kind of random hand just hit besides QJ.

djj6835 · #5 09-23-2007, 05:32 AM

I would probably just c/f. C/C doesn't make much sense since I doubt is is value betting worse here and the only whiffed draw is KQ. Shoving doesn't look good since QJ is about the only hand he may call with that you can beat. Most of his range is probably undepairs and the ones that you beat will just check behind and probably fold to a river bet.

pdoran10 · #6 09-23-2007, 05:34 AM

shove would be as a pure bluff.

djj6835 · #7 09-23-2007, 05:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
shove would be as a pure bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

It seemed from your read that trying to bluff this guy is a bad idea? Do you think he folds every better jack and possibly sets/tens?

Fonkey123 · #8 09-23-2007, 05:43 AM

I'm telling you bet 20 and call whenenver he shoves his AK/AQ/KQ

djj6835 · #9 09-23-2007, 05:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm telling you bet 20 and call whenenver he shoves his AK/AQ/KQ

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you assuming he's not shoving any of the other hands in his range that are < than a straight?

Fonkey123 · #10 09-23-2007, 05:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm telling you bet 20 and call whenenver he shoves his AK/AQ/KQ

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you assuming he's not shoving any of the other hands in his range that are < than a straight?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, it's a flow thing I'm just throwing out 20. Bet whatever amount you think he won't shove AA/KK with, but will shove a bluff over.