I don't think I like this play

[Sack Lodge]

I've got tons of outs, and I see people on these forums making plays like this all the time.

But I don't think my fold equity is great enough. I'm basically pushing a coinflip against a set or two pair, aren't I? Isn't it better to just call his CR and try to keep the money from going in until you're ahead?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($40.20)
BB ($50)
UTG ($24.10)
Hero ($53.20)
Button ($94.01)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB (poster) calls $1.75, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($4.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $2.90</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $8.80</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero pushes....</font>

[terp]

don't have pokerstove here but pretty sure you're BEHIND to A5o.

you usually want to make these plays against preflop raisers, not as the preflop raiser.

[machine]

whats villans stats? any reads? your 46% sligtly less if villan has set. You have alot of fold equity here if you feel villan will lay this down. otherwise i call and then check/fold the turn unless i feel villan was making a move or he offers me 3/1+

[Jouster777]

Pushing is clearly EV+ but I probably just call here against a typical villain.

A read helps
...if you think he will call moderate bets when one of your outs hits then just call
...if you think he will push a blank turn then push while if you think he'll slow down to ~1/2 PSB then call
...if you have decent FE then push

[n1nj4.br]

Board: Qh 4c Ac
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 47.3737 % 47.37% 00.00% { KcJc }
Hand 2: 52.6263 % 52.63% 00.00% { As5h }

I dont like this push.

U can call flop, but i dont know if i like it either. we are getting 2.7:1, and about 1:4 to get nuts on turn. I think its ok to call if we are sure that if turns brings our card, we will stack villian. If turn doesnt bring our cards, call only if he give us very good odds (but we will prolly have to fold ).

[Jouster777]

I don't think a fold is an option. We have 12 outs to the current nuts. If we see 2 cards we will hit 45% of the time and there is a lot of dead money in the pot.

[AZplaya]

This play is much better if you have an OESD/overs/both to go along with your FD. I agree you have very little FE. IF you are confident you can stack him if your FD/SD hits on the turn, then call. Otherwise, fold to the flop raise.

[n1nj4.br]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think a fold is an option. We have 12 outs to the current nuts. If we see 2 cards we will hit 45% of the time and there is a lot of dead money in the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

if we want to see 2 cards, we must push flop.

[subzero]

vs. a set or two-pair:
Board: Ac 4c Qh
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 36.2626 % 36.26% 00.00% { KcJc }
Hand 2: 63.7374 % 63.74% 00.00% { QdQs, AhQd }

I believe your push (and his call) gives you about 1.55:1 pot odds. You're a 1.75:1 dog to the river. So you need some fold equity here, but it doesn't look like you have any. The math is close and I don't fault you for playing it this way.

[ChipStorm]

Best play hinges on two variables, both read-dependent:

* Your fold equity
* How big a bet villain will call when another [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] comes

Very generally, for a strong player, the first may be larger and the second smaller, so you get it in now. For a weak player, the converse generally will hold.