Standard hand with top pair, facing pot-sized bet on the river

[fabadam]

This was the hand that had me thinking the longest tonight.
I am open to comments on earlier streets, but am mostly interested in the river. What is your action if:
(1) villain is unknown.
(2) villain is rather loose, but not very aggressive so far
(3) villain seems a bit LAG, and specifically has AF by street of 2.0/1.5/6.0.

Image of hero is TAG/LAG, I have been playing 22/20/10 on this table so far, with lots of automatic c-bets on the flop, not showing down a lot at all.

Everest Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25/$0.50 (HH Converter by Kreatief)

Button (48.00)
SB (50.30)
BB (97.95)
MP3 (57.90) (Hero)
CO (46.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.00</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls $1.75, BB calls $1.50,

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ( $6 )
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $6.00</font>, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, BB calls $6.00,

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ( $18 )
BB checks, Hero checks,

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ( $18 )
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $18.00</font>, Hero ???,

[Grunch]

there are no discernable draws that whiffed that might bluff at the end. when I'm in this situation, and I'm quite certain he isn't bluffing, I ask myself if he could have the hand one pip worse then mine. I think he has QT here alomost never, so I fold.

by the way its easy to fold correctly here then make a logical incorrect conclusion that you must bet the turn to ensure two streets of value. that's results oriented thinking. checking the turn is fine if the board is dry

[fabadam]

I had folded a number of comparable situations before in this session. I folded on almost exactly this play about 3 orbits earlier against another villain (I had completely missed the flop but c-betted against just 1 villain there).

SO anyway, I called, fully prepared to curse myself for it, and villain showed down Ks3h.
(This appears to be fairly typical on Everest, many people will not fold the c-bet if they hit any part of the flop, but will not raise either.)

As a follow-on question, normally I'd call here if the bet was half pot or less. Does that make any sense?

[JavaNut]

[ QUOTE ]
As a follow-on question, normally I'd call here if the bet was half pot or less. Does that make any sense?

[/ QUOTE ]

The smaller the river bet the better pot odds you get calling down a bluff. If there is a 10% chance villains is bluffing you need a little better than 9-1 pot odds to call profitable. So if your read on villain says he makes half pot sized bets when bluffing and he is bluffing like that more 25% of the time then you are getting 3-1 pot odds and are getting the better part of it. But at half pot you really need a good read. If getting 9-1 or better you will on the other hand need the read that villain only bets small in this situation to extract a little extra value with a big hand, not to call.

I usualy make a 1/2 to 2/3 potsize bet the turn, if you get checkraised on the turn you can fold your hand. I don`t think that villain`s hand improved with the ace. looks like a set or 2 pair to me. The way you played it I fold, you can only beat a complete bluff. Small pocket pairs and suited connectors are a big part of his range IMO.