Lugo, will the offense be worth it?

[Toro]

Typical Red Sox fan, I'm getting ready to jump off the Tobin already concerning Lugo's defense or should say lack thereof. Only very early in Spring Training but he looks shaky at short.

With all the offense the Sox have, I'm having trouble believing that they aren't better off with gold glove caliber/no hit Agon than shaky d/good hit Lugo.

[KilgoreTrout]

I agree with you Toro.

Lugo is a career .277 / .340 / .402 hitter. He averages 9.7 HR and 48 RBI per season. He averages 74 runs scored over his 7 MLB seasons. He turns 31 in November 2007.

Gonzo is a career .246 / .302 / .391 hitter, with averages of 10 HR and 47 RBI and 67 runs scored per season (9 MLB seasons). He turns 30 in December 2007.

Source: 2006 Bill James Handbook

So the question becomes how to relate Gonzo's defense to runs prevented, in order to make up for Lugo's edge in runs scored, average, OBP. My eyes tell me that Gonzo gets to more balls, turns more double plays, makes fewer errors, and, with Lowell at third, makes a formidable left side of the infield.

With Lugo, you still get decent range but with a sometimes erratic arm. He's in the second tier of MLB SS's defensively IMO. Others in this category include Furcal, Rollins, Tejada, (see the trend... these guys are known as "offensive shortstops"); whereas the elite glove men that Gonzo's club includes are: Vizquel, Jeter, Everett.

Rather than continue boring you, my expectation is more or less a wash. Lugo will score a few more runs than Gonzo, especially hitting in front of that potent lineup, but he'll also cost more runs in the field.

Lugo can steal a base for you, not that it matters in the AL. He's a career 139/191 73% success.

The 3 year averages show Lugo's superior offense:

Lugo: .284 / .351 / .405, 80 RS, 51 BB/84K, 20 SB, 8GIDP.

Gonzo: .249 / .296 / .397, 53 RS, 27BB/91K , 3SB, 11 GIDP.

So over the past 3 seasons do I think Gonzo's defense has "prevented" and average of 27 runs per season? I doubt it. At least I think that's the argument on Yawkey way.

[THAY3R]

There is so many things wrong with your post it's not even funny.

Most notably is your inclusion of Jeter amongst the best defensive SS's and you comparing the players Runs scored.


Lugo is definitely an upgrade though, his defense isn't that bad : http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/...s_as_i_see_it/
Has Lugo as above average but preventing 12 less runs than Gonzo last year.

His offense(particularly OBP) more than makes up for it.

[youtalkfunny]

Doesn't moving Lugo from Tampa to Boston automatically double his "runs scored"?

[THAY3R]

So now he's 2x better!

[KilgoreTrout]

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There is so many things wrong with your post it's not even funny.


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You sir, do not understand baseball. I'll elaborate when I get out of my morning meetings.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

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There is so many things wrong with your post it's not even funny.


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You sir, do not understand baseball. I'll elaborate when I get out of my morning meetings.

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Kilgore your analysis is based on the following:

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So the question becomes how to relate Gonzo's defense to runs prevented, in order to make up for Lugo's edge in runs scored, average, OBP.

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This is incorrect b/c 'runs scored' is different and far less than important than 'runs created' or a hitters ultimate value. Runs scored depends greatly on your teammates, so it's a fallacy to base a hitters value on it. Much better are 'SABR' stats like VORP (for hitting) or WARP1 (for hitting + defense) which measure a players value relative to a readily available replacement player at his position, independent of what his teammates happened to do, and the park he played in, and the league he played in, etc.

also, regarding defense, your eyes can decieve you.

[zer0]

i can already guarantee that all of my radios will be broken listening to weei complaining about having lugo while he's at .360/.460, but has made a couple meaningless errors, all the while mourning the loss of gonzalez and his "at least 2 runs prevented per game"

[SharkTank43]

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There is so many things wrong with your post it's not even funny.


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You sir, do not understand baseball.

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Wrong.

[THAY3R]

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[ QUOTE ]
There is so many things wrong with your post it's not even funny.


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You sir, do not understand baseball. I'll elaborate when I get out of my morning meetings.

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