overpeel one time?

yourface · #1 07-12-2007, 09:33 PM

SB is 35/15/2.5 over 100 hands. can't get at my notes on him but I remember there being nothing about his donking tendencies.

UTG is 75/10 over 50 hands. he sucks

Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $5/$10
5 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (5 players) yourface is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG calls, CO calls, yourface raises, SB 3-bets, BB folds, UTG calls, CO folds, yourface caps, SB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (14SB, 3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, yourface bets, SB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (8.5BB, 3 players)
SB bets, UTG calls,

one time?

BigBadBabar · #2 07-12-2007, 09:45 PM

i would call because of the flushdraw

TheHip41 · #3 07-12-2007, 09:51 PM

you have a flush draw, the guy donking probably doesn't have a higher club.

I'd call, and fold the river UI, obviously

yourface · #4 07-12-2007, 09:56 PM

I guess I was overthinking this

my question was pretty much "is my flush draw live enough of the time"

the donker seemed likely to have a high club or maybe a pair+high club or straight draw + high club combo given his flop play. I'd expect most pairs to c/r the flop

plus the LP guy will have a higher club sometimes too

sethypooh21 · #5 07-12-2007, 10:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you have a flush draw, the guy donking probably doesn't have a higher club.

I'd call, and fold the river UI, obviously

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno. Most of the time SB donking and UTG calling here means either I'm beat already and my flush outs are no good, or my flush outs are no good and I'm beat already if that makes sense.

Kvacke · #6 07-12-2007, 10:11 PM

Yeah easy turncall closing the action. Whats more Im not sure we are losing this pot at this moment all the time, utg can have any hand and sb didnt c/r his K or Q on the flop trying to get utg out (he has a high aggrofactor). So I think it may be possible he has a lower pocketpair with a club here that he decided to donk. Utgs range is big here so no reason to think he has a higer club that often.

mvoss · #7 07-13-2007, 04:13 AM

I call the turn and fold the river UI.

UtzChips · #8 07-13-2007, 06:36 AM

Yourface bets flop and gets 2 callers, indicating that he is already beat (100% of the time) and his club draw is no good 80% of the time, but his opponent(s) has only 1 club.

80% of the time Hero is drawing to 2 outs.
20% of the time Hero is drawing to 11 outs.

11.5:2 on his money, because when the 4th club comes, only the guy with the better club is betting and 2nd opponent folds. He also gets 1 caller when a J rivers.

(.8*.9565)*2 BBs = 1.53 BBs lost when he's drawing dead to 2 jacks.
(.8*.0435)*11.5 BBs = .4002 BBs won when he rivers a jack.

(.2*.7609)*2 BB = .3043 BBs lost when he has 11 outs and misses.
(.2*.2391)11.5 BBs = .55 BBs won when he catches.

.8841 lost overall in this scenario. Need to come up with a better one.

Kvacke · #9 07-13-2007, 06:49 AM

How can you think that sb or utg is going to have the Ace or King of club 4 times out of 5 here at the same time we are beat? Utg is 75% VPIP guy that is playing a big pot and therefore is calling any club and maybe any pair here. and sb didnt c/r this big pot on the flop. Tell me what handranges you put them on after this action.

UtzChips · #10 07-13-2007, 07:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
How can you think that sb or utg is going to have the Ace or King of club 4 times out of 5 here at the same time we are beat? Utg is 75% VPIP guy that is playing a big pot and therefore is calling any club and maybe any pair here. and sb didnt c/r this big pot on the flop. Tell me what handranges you put them on after this action.

[/ QUOTE ]

OP is the one who sez he "I am beat already and my club draw is no good the majority of the time." Talk to him.