1-2 NL: Semi-Bluff raise on turn, facing min donk bet on river

[lawloser]

Is this a good spot to bluff? Villan is 25/10/1.16 over 100 hands. I turned a double gutter and was hoping to take it down right there. I was going to give it up on the river unless I hit, but then came the very small donk bet on the river when the third diamond came. The 9 of diamonds completed alot of hands and I was hoping to use it as a scare card... I believe villan has an overpair.

Prima Poker skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1.00/$2.00
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $276.37
UTG+1: $199.00
CO: $196.00
HERO: $349.55
SB: $228.25
BB: $13.00

Pre-flop: (6 players) HERO is Button with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
2 folds, CO calls, HERO calls, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $5</font>, BB folds, CO calls, HERO calls.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($19, 3 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $8</font>, CO folds, HERO calls.

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($35, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $18</font>, <font color="#cc0000">HERO raises to $44</font>, SB calls.

River: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($123, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $6</font>, <font color="#cc0000">HERO raises to $88</font>

[Jamougha]

[ QUOTE ]

Is this a good spot to bluff?

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I believe villan has an overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

No

[lawloser]

Do you believe that this move is -EV in the long term. For what it's worth villan is solid and can make laydowns.

[StupidAcesSigh]

I might bluff the river if I didn't hit a pair; better hands than yours are probably calling if he is bad and you are definitely good 1 time in 20 ;P

[Jamougha]

[ QUOTE ]

Do you believe that this move is -EV in the long term. For what it's worth villan is solid and can make laydowns.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure it's -EV against most players at 200NL, even the relatively solid ones. Based on this hand the guy doesn't look that great. I'm not quite sure what you're representing other than 'look, scary board! go away' and he has really good pot odds.

[lawloser]

I rarely bluff at 200NL and then only against villans who can make lay downs (I have to see them do it and never assume just because they have solid numbers). I would have normally given up bc I know he has a hand when he calls my raise. Then came that lame donk bet. I'm not calling b/c I know my hand is no good, but that weak bet was just begging me to raise him.