Stars $320: FT facing all-in w/ AJs

[bluesbassman]

Here is a hand from the final table of last night's Stars Wed $150K Guaranteed, 8 players left. Villain had made a few questionable plays with 2 tables left, such as open-limping with a short (10-12BBs) stack, then folding to a raise preflop.

Poker Stars, $300 + $20 NL Hold'em Tournament, 5,000/10,000 Blinds, 8 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

MP1: 239,891
MP2: 673,795
CO: 231,466
BTN: 370,844
SB: 177,818
Hero (BB): 110,310
UTG: 137,740
UTG+1: 101,136

Pre-Flop: (19,000) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG folds, <font color="red">UTG+1 raises to 100,636 and is All-In</font>, 5 folds, Hero ??

[djk123]

def a call. 8 handed utg+1 with only 10bbs he's pushing wide enough here. plus you're getting decent odds from BB

[Ansky]

[ QUOTE ]
def a call. 8 handed utg+1 with only 10bbs he's pushing wide enough here. plus you're getting decent odds from BB

[/ QUOTE ]

yep

[eBo]

Against any decent player this is a call. But this might be a weak tight satelliter. I've gotten pretty good at reading how donks play short stacks, and I can tell you with certainty that his range is 22-TT,A9s+,ATo+,KQs. They tend to get cute w/JJ+.

I don't have PokerStove at work, but I think it's a marginal call.

[Ansky]

[ QUOTE ]
Against any decent player this is a call. But this might be a weak tight satelliter. I've gotten pretty good at reading how donks play short stacks, and I can tell you with certainty that his range is 22-TT,A9s+,ATo+,KQs. They tend to get cute w/JJ+.

I don't have PokerStove at work, but I think it's a marginal call.

[/ QUOTE ]

If u really think that is his range, then this isn't marginal at all.

[Ansky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Against any decent player this is a call. But this might be a weak tight satelliter. I've gotten pretty good at reading how donks play short stacks, and I can tell you with certainty that his range is 22-TT,A9s+,ATo+,KQs. They tend to get cute w/JJ+.

I don't have PokerStove at work, but I think it's a marginal call.

[/ QUOTE ]

If u really think that is his range, then this isn't marginal at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

oops, I just stoved it, i guess itd be kinda close but still a fist pump call

[dw2006]

Snap call against sat qualifier or not.

[Eagles]

Against anyone good its a snap call. But against the described villain its a lot closer... I think I fold

[LarsVegas]

It sure feels tough to fold a semi-premium hand against the other short stack at the final table, but I still think this is a close fold. General tournament theory, and particularly as a short (yet still with a "playable" stack) stack at a final table clearly will tell that the last 100k chips in your stack are worth significantly more than another 100k, chip per chip.

Getting about 1.3-to-1 on calling here, I'd say you need to be 50% against his range to be calling.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 50.346% 46.49% 03.86% 509471528 42255602.00 { AJs }
Hand 1: 49.654% 45.80% 03.86% 501891828 42255602.00 { 22+, A2s+, KJs+, ATo+, KQo }

An UTG 10 big blind push, I'd say that's an optimistic, but possibly correct, range (given that some players almost refuse to take another round of blinds w/10bb stacks and therefore will be pushing very wide here. Others that are pushing "correctly" may be pushing a little tighter than my range).

[uclabruinz]

I agree with what RandALLin said, except I would use proper grammar.