2 overcards and a straight draw

Nicok7 · #1 08-18-2006, 08:46 AM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($394)
UTG ($167.50)
MP ($366.15)
Button ($84.80)
Hero ($500.60)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. UTG posts a blind of $4. Hero posts a blind of $2.
UTG (poster) checks, 1 fold, Button calls $4, Hero (poster) completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($16) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets $12, BB folds, UTG raises to $24, Button calls $24, Hero raises to $360

Too aggressive? I feel I shouldn't lead the flop given the stack sizes I pretty much commit myselft. My thinking process is UTG is strong but can probably fold, while button is weak but involved, so worst case scenario this pot will be 3 way with me having the open ended straight outs, factor in the fold equity and I like the push.

I could have checked call the flop though with I think would be better, do you?

Sciolist · #2 08-18-2006, 08:49 AM

I think you need some kind of read on UTG here. What're the chances of you making him fold something you are behind to? I'd generally say that if he calls, we can pretty safely say that the tens and jacks aren't outs anymore.

I prefer a call in this spot, he has given you odds to do so, there's another player in the pot who helps your implied odds (not that you need to look too far into implied odds to call anyway), and your hand is very likely to get paid off if you hit by anything that'll call your all-in on the flop.

TheJeanGenie · #3 08-18-2006, 08:53 AM

The stacks are such that if they have anything, they are likely not folding. You are getting great odds to draw out on the flop. It's likely the case that taking a cheap card is more +EV than pushing with little FE.

Nicok7 · #4 08-18-2006, 09:19 AM

Does this mean you would lead the flop like I did? In retrospect and all things being equal I now think a check is stronger given vilains shortish stacks.

Morrek · #5 08-18-2006, 09:21 AM

Too aggressive. Bet/call or check/call both work great here.

Sciolist · #6 08-18-2006, 09:28 AM

I'd certainly lead the flop, you take down a lot of pots like that. I just would call his reraise, he's given you the price to.

TheJeanGenie · #7 08-18-2006, 09:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Does this mean you would lead the flop like I did? In retrospect and all things being equal I now think a check is stronger given vilains shortish stacks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your flop lead is good. It will win the pot a lot. When it doesn't, your turn bet frequently will.

FGators · #8 08-18-2006, 09:46 AM

Much too aggressive. Leading for $12 is fine...now call him and try and hit the OE.