NCAA Hoops: Richmond at Memphis

[Nate_Dogg]

For background I'm a Memphis alum and I follow the team very closely. That said, I can be objective about the line and I fade them when I see fit.

Tonight's game is Richmond +29 at Memphis. Memphis started slow and finished strong against a slightly better-than-expected UT-Martin last night. Martin benefited from having one of their players go off for 35 (Memphis kid who played pick-up w/ the Memphis players for the last 2 summers so he wasn't intimidated like the rest of his team).

Richmond eeked out a 44-42 win vs the mighty Maine Bears yesterday. They routinely hold the ball until there's < 10 secs on the shot clock.

I'm taking Richmond tonight for 2 units, mainly b/c I think it will be hard for the Tigers to cover when the game will effectively be several minutes shorter than last night's contest. If Richmond can do a decent job of beating the press and shoot a decent FG percentage they should be able to cover.

Also, last year's Memphis team sometimes struggled against the slow tempo teams as they are built/programmed for an up-and-down game. Last night Martin did a good job of beating the press in the first half and did not attempt to slow the pace of the game at all, which eventually allowed the Tigers depth (9-10 deep even w/o Dorsey) to wear them down. Richmond only had 7 players play material minutes yesterday so that will be an issue in the second half.

Bottom line is I think its a solid wager. Go Tigers, but not too much.

[MicroBob]

Went to +29½ on bodog so I decided to get on board with this one.
I still think the over of 140 has a reasonable chance though.

I'm envisioning something in the 85-60 ballpark but maybe I'm underestimating how much Richmond can slow things down.

[Nate_Dogg]

The keys will be:

1- Memphis's intensity
2- Richmond's ability to handle the press at least decently, say maybe < 17 turnovers total
3- Richmond's ability to hit the few open shots they will get.

As far as the over/under I agree. At some point they are mostly likely going to be down 15+ in the second half and have to open it up a bit.

[MicroBob]

Not having seen the Rich/Maine game I'm guessing that Maine wasn't quite as intense defensively as Memphis is going to be and they perhaps 'let' them churn off so much of that shot-clock.

Richmond is familiar with the building and also familiar with the noise level and what the scene will look like when they play this game. I'm guessing they stuck around to watch part of the MEM game.
So they have that familiarity to their advantage to perhaps negate some of the large-arena/big-crowd intimidation factor as opposed to if they had just shown up off the plane and had never seen the place before.

[Nate_Dogg]

Took Richmond +16.5 1st half right b4 the tip--that worked out nicely. 2nd half line it MEM -14, probably a decent bet, would expect them to get a toungue lashing at half-time and come out fired up. Richmond should tire as well, they played surprisingly up-tempo in the 1st half. Only ran 7 deep last night.

[Nate_Dogg]

Richmond 6-9 from 3 in the 1st half, shouldn't last...one of them was banked in.

[MicroBob]

I'm taking MEM -14, -105 in the 2nd half.

[Nate_Dogg]

Took Memphis -14 at -105 for 1u (2nd half)

[Nate_Dogg]

Oh, Bobby we stole that 2nd half cover baby. Gotta love it. 1st half, 2nd half, full game all winners bud.

[MicroBob]

Yup. 3 for 3.
Giddy-up!