200NL - QQ river decision

Bramsterdam · #1 10-09-2007, 08:28 PM

Everest Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00/$2.00 (HH Converter by Kreatief)

Villain is Tagish 26/12/1.3 after 190 hands. Obv not retarded, but calls too much pre-flop. BB is a huge fish, wants to see every flop.

I don't think there are much aces in villains range at the turn, maybe some AcXx hands. I don't like the 9 hitting the river, since villain might have called the flop with A9/T9/98. Is vaillain agressive enough to bluff missed draws on the river and can I make a +EV call? Of to bed right now, will reply tomorrow. I do Cbet these flops quite often with missed OC's btw.

BB ($235.84)
MP2 ($308.30) (Hero)
MP3 ($435.25)
CO ($170.50)
Button ($200.30)
SB ($225.30)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero raises to $7.00, MP3 calls $7.00, 3 folds, BB calls $5.00,

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ( $22 )
BB bets $2.00, Hero raises to $17.00, MP3 calls $17.00, 1 folds,

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ( $58 )
Hero checks, MP3 checks,

River: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ( $58 )
Hero checks, MP3 bets $40.00, Hero?

TheChad · #2 10-09-2007, 09:20 PM

I feel like a station when I call this. Seems like all we beat here is a bluff.

BlueBear · #3 10-09-2007, 10:20 PM

Fold. There's very little we beat here. Villain is not aggressive enough to bet busted draws too often.

Skleice · #4 10-09-2007, 11:07 PM

fold

Rollos · #5 10-09-2007, 11:08 PM

Does anyone bet the turn?

BenJay · #6 10-09-2007, 11:46 PM

i feel like a bet on the turn would define the villians range considerably. that ace is likely a scare card for him, as u C-bet the flop with OC's as much as it scares you. bet the ace for about 43. if he calls or raises get away from the hand obv.

ur asking about the river and it is horrible for you. as played fold on 5th street.

wdead · #7 10-09-2007, 11:47 PM

i would probably bet small on the turn, like less than half pot, and call a shove

theplux · #8 10-09-2007, 11:51 PM

i bet turn 30% of the time id say in this spot.

TheChad · #9 10-10-2007, 06:43 AM

don't bet turn. just c/f at the earliest convenience.

#10 10-11-2007, 01:09 AM

I bet the turn FWIW, somewhere b/w 1/2 to 2/3 of the pot.