Make a Move or Wait???

[TheBenfer]

OK - $5 buy-in STT at Full Tilt. We are 60+ hands in and the table still has 7 people - not the usual all-in fest. Blinds are becoming uncomfortable for me. I won a couple of small pots early, but probably played one hand in the last 20 due to bad cards and bad situations. I am now down to an M of 6 (not even counting the fact that we're shorthanded) and I am thinking I need to make a move soon.

UTG+1 likes raising. He's raised about 15-20% of hands pre-flop and hasn't shown very many down. When he has, it's been A-x, KJ, or KK (from what I remember).

Full Tilt Poker, $5 + $0.50 NL Hold'em Sit n' Go, 80/160 Blinds, 7 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): 1,284
UTG: 2,530
UTG+1: 1,670
MP: 2,104
CO: 1,040
BTN: 1,784
SB: 3,088

Pre-Flop: (240) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG folds, <font color="red">UTG+1 raises to 375</font>, 4 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to 1,284 and is All-In</font>.

My thinking is that his raising range is very wide and I can probably push him off by going all-in more often than not. My cards at this point are mostly irrelevant, although the fact that 87s actually plays OK against a big raising hand helped the decision. I'm also hoping that he's noticed my tight play and that will help get him to fold.

Any thoughts? Should I have waited for a better spot?

[Kevin8423]

You still have 10BBs here, it would be much better to shove any random 2 in later position than this than to make a move here over a preflop raiser. 78s isn't even that great of a hand. Most of the time you will be a bit behind one or two overcards, sometimes dominated by an overpair, sometimes flipping with an underpair, and very infrequently slightly ahead of two undercards. You are never better than flipping here and often are behind, you likely don't have a ton of FE here either.

You said he raises often, but hes only showed down good hands so its possible he had a strong run, or maybe you are overestimating the amount he has raised?

[Josem]

huh? why would you do this?


do some ICM calcs if you're serious.

[donkeykong2]

the only way for this to be good is if villain is a thinking player who knows that this is very very rarely a bluff if you do that.

[Scotty_12]

There is very little I like about stealing from an EP raiser putting in a quarter of his st ack with eight high, I think 'waiting for a better spot' is definitely what you should do, thankfully that will not be very difficult

[ADLinden]

This is probably never good at a 5 dollar sng.

[TheBenfer]

I guess I was trying to look at this from his point of view - I thought my fold equity was actually relatively high.

You raise from early position with a mediocre hand (let's say A8 or KJ). The BB re-raises all-in (enough to cripple your stack). The BB has played one hand in the last 20, and didn't play all that many before that. Do you make the call?

I thought the answer to this was likely no, therefore the play. So for those that disagree with the play, do you disagree that he's likely to fold his hand here? Why? Not trying to be argumentative, just trying to learn how to play better poker. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

For reference, when I run the "top 16%" of hands through PokerStove and compare with 87s, these are the results. I'm not saying that I thought I was a favorite, just that I thought the fold equity made up for the difference.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.056% 35.71% 00.35% 125963641 1217790.50 { 8c7c }
Hand 1: 63.944% 63.60% 00.35% 224335402 1217790.50 { 66+, A7s+, A5s, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }

Thanks for the responses so far - please keep them up. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Josem]

[ QUOTE ]
You raise from early position with a mediocre hand (let's say A8 or KJ).

[/ QUOTE ]
wait.


what?

(there's a cute cat that does this, but i'm equally adorable)


if villain is raising KJ from there (or A8, or other crap hand) he doesn't understand the concept of equity and ICM. thus, you have no fold equity.


in short -

if villain is raising wide, villain will call because he is a donk.

if villain is raising narrow, villain will call because he has a good hand.

[rakemeplz]

Absolutely horrendous move IMO...your hand is godawful and you are only RERAISING less than 10 big blinds total and he's utg. With your sick reads you can do this with some sort of hand maybe, I dunno.

'For reference, when I run the "top 16%" of hands through PokerStove and compare with 87s, these are the results. I'm not saying that I thought I was a favorite, just that I thought the fold equity made up for the difference.'

Against top 16% hands I think there are many better hands than 87s though (although 87s is ok).

[DannyOcean_]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You raise from early position with a mediocre hand (let's say A8 or KJ).

[/ QUOTE ]
wait.


what?

(there's a cute cat that does this, but i'm equally adorable)


if villain is raising KJ from there (or A8, or other crap hand) he doesn't understand the concept of equity and ICM. thus, you have no fold equity.


in short -

if villain is raising wide, villain will call because he is a donk.

if villain is raising narrow, villain will call because he has a good hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is essentially what i'd say except he's clear and i'd use like 500 words.