KQ high value bet checkup

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

Opponent and I are playing 30/60 heads up. It's not a heads up table, we were playing like 4-handed and other seats cleared out so it's just us now. Opponent's hand reading skills are marginal and he puts way too much money into the pot with second-best hands. I've definitely been playing LAG and he doesn't give me any credit at all.

Anyway I open KQs from the SB/Button, he calls. Flop is 999. He checks, I bet and he calls. Turn J rainbow he checks and I check behind. River 7 he checks. This is an easy value bet, no?

[gehrig]

pretty marginal either way

ur equity when he doesnt fold is prob in the 40-60 range

most ppl dont cr a5 on the flop

[gehrig]

oh wait i thouight u bet the turn

as played it hink its an easier vb

[The Funky Llama]

its an easy value bet imo. His range is weighted away from ax b/c of the lack of a 3bet preflop and the flop check/call (and lack of river value bet if hes good because a good player should bet any ace and good kings on the river if knows ur good). Also u will get called by like QT here sometimes.

[yourface]

he reraises most of his aces and PPs preflop right?

I think it is a good vb given your image he probably looks you up with KX QX.

he could be inducing a bluff with an ace or turned/rivered pair, but hero calls make up more of his range. also pairs should be discounted because he should be betting those on the river most of the time.

[HOWMANY]

Before I opened this I thought to myself "I'm not going to like this if there isn't an A on the board" but this appears fine. A bet has to go in on the turn or river here I think. Him checking an A on the river after the turn is a J makes little sense but it wouldn't really surprise me if he calls and we lose. I expect us to win after he calls more than we lose for sure. If he calls and loses this is the kind of guy that might get angry at you and himself because you "bluffed" (he thinks) and you got lucky that you were bluffing with better than him which might steam him a little as well.

[MAxx]

-handreading makes me think you are very likely ahead.

-ahead 55% of the time when just calls? seems pretty thin at best to me. sure, you value out of worse kings and the occasional Q... but i doubt you fold out better hands or get calls from worse hands often enough to make it profitable, not to mention small percentage of the time you get cr'd off the best hand

short story shorter- i'd check behind.

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
-ahead 55% of the time when just calls? seems pretty thin at best to me. sure, you value out of worse kings and the occasional Q... but i doubt you fold out better hands or get calls from worse hands often enough to make it profitable, not to mention small percentage of the time you get cr'd off the best hand

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not folding if check-raised against this opponent.

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

Okay, just to close this thread out:

I'm not too concerned about opponent having ace-high because I think the majority of the time he'd either 3-bet preflop OR check-raise the flop OR value-bet the river (especially since he doesn't need to worry about kicker problems unless I have exactly AQ/AK). I don't think he's necessarily doing all of those things all of the time, but he's doing at least one of those things most of the time.

If opponent is unlikely to have ace-high this becomes a pretty clear value bet. I expect to get called pretty often by K-high and even by Q-high since (1) he's a station (2) he probably knows that I know that he's a station, which is relevant because it means that I could have simply been giving up on the turn with a hand like 65s rather than trying for a cheap showdown with A/K high.

[jba]

do you think he should check a seven on the river here?