Bet the river with 77?

crunny · #1 03-31-2007, 10:18 PM

Villain is 12.5/8.7/1.5 over 300 hands. What hands do you put villain on? What is your play on the river?

How does your answer change if:
a) The river was NOT a spade
b) The river was a 3d

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP2 ($96.75)
CO ($144.10)
Hero ($103.55)
SB ($47.05)
BB ($21.40)
UTG ($100)
MP1 ($314.95)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises to $4, 3 folds, Hero calls $4, 2 folds.

Flop: ($9.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets $7, Hero calls $7.

Turn: ($23.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $15, UTG calls $15.

River: ($53.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero ??

whorasaurus · #2 03-31-2007, 10:20 PM

CHECK
IT
DOWN

oober · #3 03-31-2007, 10:27 PM

Probably just checking it, but what do you think villian thinks of you?
You don't think a reraise on flop and lead out out on turn might have gotten hand for ya?

GiantBuddha · #4 03-31-2007, 10:28 PM

I think you'll see 99-QQ here pretty often. It looks like he's playing pot control on the turn, but it's a pretty heinous board for an overpair. You're asking whether to bluff the river, right? The K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is an ideal bluffing card here unless he c-bet the flop with like A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. You've gotta know whether the guy will lay down a hand or not, and also what his perception of you is.

crunny · #5 03-31-2007, 10:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Probably just checking it, but what do you think villian thinks of you?
You don't think a reraise on flop and lead out out on turn might have gotten hand for ya?

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain would probably see me as a typical TAG 12/8. I like playing in position, I'm aggressive and i like stealing pots.

On the flop I think raising definitely has its merits, especially since we are only drawing to 2 outs. However, if our flop raise gets called I think we need to shut down on MOST turns. In this example I think betting the second 8 could be ok, not really convinced though.

bottomset · #6 03-31-2007, 10:43 PM

I definitely check a 3d river, the K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is a good bluff card $36-40 looks good

crunny · #7 03-31-2007, 10:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think you'll see 99-QQ here pretty often. It looks like he's playing pot control on the turn, but it's a pretty heinous board for an overpair. You're asking whether to bluff the river, right? The K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] is an ideal bluffing card here unless he c-bet the flop with like A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. You've gotta know whether the guy will lay down a hand or not, and also what his perception of you is.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, if I bet its as a bluff. I want to fold out 99-QQ. The problem is that i don't think my line is consistent with AK or KQ, so villain might still call. Does villain fold often enough to make this profitable?

futuredoc85 · #8 03-31-2007, 10:45 PM

if you bet you're repping the flush not the K. the only way you could rep the K is if it wasnt Ks, unless he doesnt hand-read at all