massive pot with 96o in the BB

ericishungry · #1 04-19-2007, 12:12 AM

New to table, no reads.

PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $1.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, CO (poster) checks, 1 fold, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (7 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 raises, MP2 folds, MP3 3-bets, CO folds, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 caps, MP3 calls, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (13.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 raises, MP3 3-bets, SB caps, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls $0.25 (All-In), MP3 calls.

River: (29.62 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 players, 1 all-in)
SB bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP3 raises, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 folds.

Final Pot: 36.62 BB

Really wasn't happy with my hand here but pot was waaaay to big to fold, though I figure I'm probably needing that 8 and it's looking like there's only 2 of them left. Thoughts?

bennyhana · #2 04-19-2007, 12:22 AM

why did the Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] change the strength of your hand on the river vs the turn?

ericishungry · #3 04-19-2007, 12:39 AM

It didn't. My comment at the end there was that I wasn't happy about my hand at all, not because the Q came. Given the action on the flop and turn, I figured that someone was likely to have the 8-high straight, so I tried to showdown as cheap as possible.

Grease · #4 04-19-2007, 12:53 AM

Please don't fold. Call and pray. You'll hopefully chop and not lose, but the pot is over 35BB. You can't fold.

ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S · #5 04-19-2007, 08:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
why did the Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] change the strength of your hand on the river vs the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

because it wasnt an 8

EGO · #6 04-20-2007, 02:03 PM

Why bet the flop? Sure, you've got an OESD that is usually good, but you certainly won't fold all of your opponents out, and it's a lock that your 9-high isn't the best hand right now. Without knowledge of your opponents, you don't know if they will raise you or not, so this would incline you more away from a semi-bluff. If anybody does raise, you cut down on your implied odds. Oh, and don't forget about possibly making your hand but losing to a flush. No reason to lead out on this flop. Don't give me equity, either. We don't have any reads, and without knowledge of opponents tendancies, particularly out of position, we don't know how much we will be getting equity-wise. I'll bet that hero will pick up the pot less than one times in eight, however.

On the turn, there's no reason to think that it will be checked through, so please check-raise the second nuts.

It's important to know some card frequency counts here. How many combinations of 86 can be out versus hands that we beat that bet typically bet this strongly.

86: 12 ways

sets on flop: 9 ways
A2: 16 ways
overpairs: 30+

splits: a whole bunch

The river doesn't change anything. If someone has 86, that's poker, but usually you'll be splitting with someone else, sharing their money.

With reads, I probably can fold this on the flop. I don't want to draw to an oesd against hands that can make hands better than a straight when I make my hand. It's good that 3 of my outs give me the nuts, but I see a set here somewhere. On the river, I'd see SB with a set, and MP2 with a 6, but we can't know that until we've called the river bet, twice.

Marquis · #7 04-20-2007, 02:13 PM

Looks perfect to me.

Aaron W. · #8 04-20-2007, 02:23 PM

I would check the flop and consider folding for two bets when it comes back to me.

As played, I show down the second nuts.

kerowo · #9 04-20-2007, 03:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]

With reads, I probably can fold this on the flop. I don't want to draw to an oesd against hands that can make hands better than a straight when I make my hand. It's good that 3 of my outs give me the nuts, but I see a set here somewhere. On the river, I'd see SB with a set, and MP2 with a 6, but we can't know that until we've called the river bet, twice.

[/ QUOTE ]

Too weak.

Aaron W. · #10 04-20-2007, 03:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I would check the flop and consider folding for two bets when it comes back to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going to elaborate because I think it's really important:

The pot is 7 SB preflop. As played, the pot is 17 SB when it comes back to hero. If he had checked instead, the pot would only be 12 SB coming back to him. Because the pot is so much larger, hero is now compelled to call and hope for the best. I wouldn't give him much more than 5 outs (because of the RIO due to the redraws and chops and his BDFD is worthless), but he's getting the right odds to chase. If he had checked, he would not be getting odds and could probably fold comfortably (depending on the action).

What is the strategic advantage to betting out on the flop with his hand? It's not a good semi-bluff because he'll get called in far too many spots too often. Is it a value play with a equity on a draw? Not when it's a one-card draw with a flush redraw coming in against it. It's not making your pair outs significantly better. It's just a spew.