AQo and 9.5xBB, mid position opens for 5xBB

[betgo]

$1K Paradise Masters, about 45 players left.
Game #1405014636 - Tournament M1 Main Event - 2,000/4,000 No Limit Texas Hold'em - 2006/04/09-18:50:46.8 (CST)
Table "M1 Main Event 5" (MTT) -- Seat 7 is the button
Seat 1: TOOSWEEET (64,674 in chips)
Seat 2: Troy Otto (103,329 in chips)
Seat 3: lestr1972 (112,535 in chips)
Seat 4: fearlesstaz (126,958 in chips)
Seat 5: soggy vag (48,826 in chips)
Seat 6: clarkatroid (27,220 in chips)
Seat 7: betgo (37,752 in chips)
Seat 8: micke44 (32,439 in chips)
Seat 10: embroidme (79,799 in chips)
Troy Otto: Ante (200)
lestr1972: Ante (200)
fearlesstaz: Ante (200)
soggy vag: Ante (200)
clarkatroid: Ante (200)
betgo : Ante (200)
micke44 : Ante (200)
embroidme: Ante (200)
TOOSWEEET: Ante (200)
micke44 : Post Small Blind (2,000)
embroidme: Post Big Blind (4,000)
Dealing...
Dealt to betgo [ Qd ]
Dealt to betgo [ As ]
soggy vag said, "ty buddy"
AnalAce said, "im so wet"
TOOSWEEET: Fold
Troy Otto: Fold
lestr1972: Fold
fearlesstaz: Raise (15,000)
soggy vag: Fold
clarkatroid: Fold
betgo ???

[Requin]

Thats an annoying raise size. Push anyways.

[dmk]

he only opened for 3.75BB, but push

[NinjaMan]

Any reads on villian?

[Requin]

[ QUOTE ]
he only opened for 3.75BB, but push

[/ QUOTE ]
3bb makes our raise so much nicer. We might actually fold out a pair.

[BenNC]

i think we are all missing the real key to this hand,

the chat.

[Beachman42]

[ QUOTE ]
$1K Paradise Masters, about 45 players left.
Game #1405014636 - Tournament M1 Main Event - 2,000/4,000 No Limit Texas Hold'em - 2006/04/09-18:50:46.8 (CST)
Table "M1 Main Event 5" (MTT) -- Seat 7 is the button
Seat 1: TOOSWEEET (64,674 in chips)
Seat 2: Troy Otto (103,329 in chips)
Seat 3: lestr1972 (112,535 in chips)
Seat 4: fearlesstaz (126,958 in chips)
Seat 5: soggy vag (48,826 in chips)
Seat 6: clarkatroid (27,220 in chips)
Seat 7: betgo (37,752 in chips)
Seat 8: micke44 (32,439 in chips)
Seat 10: embroidme (79,799 in chips)
Troy Otto: Ante (200)
lestr1972: Ante (200)
fearlesstaz: Ante (200)
soggy vag: Ante (200)
clarkatroid: Ante (200)
betgo : Ante (200)
micke44 : Ante (200)
embroidme: Ante (200)
TOOSWEEET: Ante (200)
micke44 : Post Small Blind (2,000)
embroidme: Post Big Blind (4,000)
Dealing...
Dealt to betgo [ Qd ]
Dealt to betgo [ As ]
soggy vag said, "ty buddy"
AnalAce said, "im so wet"
TOOSWEEET: Fold
Troy Otto: Fold
lestr1972: Fold
fearlesstaz: Raise (15,000)
soggy vag: Fold
clarkatroid: Fold
betgo ???

[/ QUOTE ]

Pot = T23,000. If you push, villian calls 24K for a pot of ~60K, or 2.5 : 1. The real money is the Final Table WITH lots of chips, right? You don't all start even when you get there do you?

If villian's range goes down to AT (iffy) or 77, then you should push here. OTOH, you have an M of 10, or right at the border of waiting until you can be first in.

Since you didn't give a read, I fold to a ROCKish type player who raises in MP as AQ sends me to the rail vs. AA-QQ & AK very often. I push a LAG here pretty quickly as there is no stack left to act that covers him. All in all, a steal is a definite possibility, and with a ~25% likelihood, the math swings in your favor.

Eh, I push.

[neuroman]

1) clear push or fold
2) your push is getting called almost all the time here, unless villain doesn't understand pot odds and was making a pure steal
3) The only hands you're dominating are AJ, AT, KQ... if villain is very active stealing blinds it's possible a worse A or Q is in his range.
4) without reads, I think his range is narrow enough that you're flipping with a push, and I think you're more likely to be on the worse side of the flip than the better (especially when you factor in the small chance of SB or BB waking up with a hand.)
5) I don't know if you're desperate enough yet that you need to take a mediocre flip for your whole stack... I probably fold without reads.

[dumbndumb]

Looks like a push. Any reads on villian i.e. has he been a bully, making big raises on lots of unopened pots? In that case I think I definetely push, especially since you may not get many chances to open push if villian is playing table captain. This may be your best opportunity to double up.