20/40 live, JJ UTG

Captain R · #1 11-17-2006, 06:09 PM

Just moved to this table, standard table, nothing special. I have no image. BB has a lot of chips in front of him (maybe 4 racks), middle-aged Asian guy leaning back in his chair. Doesn't look too LAG or anything special.

I'm dealt JJ UTG. Open-raise, folded around to BB who thinks for a somewhat long time (5 sec.?) before deciding to call. I think he has fairly horrible cards, in this game most people call almost any 2 cards in BB to a raise.

Flop is Q-3-2 rainbow. BB leads out. I call, planning to raise pretty much any turn card. I put him on about 25% a Queen, 50% some weak pair (2, 3, maybe 44/55), and about 25% total air.

What do you think of my play? Raise flop because the turn card (AK) may hurt my action? Raise turn to draw in more money or possibly get a weak Q to fold?

Raising the turn allows me to showdown for free and almost guarantees another BB from him. Maybe 75% of the time I have him beat on the flop.

evo_aces · #2 11-17-2006, 06:28 PM

I dont think you are laying down your premium pair against only one opponent, and I will raise on the flop to represent a better hand and get in the driver's seat.. if he comes over the top you have a better idea what you are up against and you can try to catch a 2 outer for the price of one extra small bet

Captain R · #3 11-17-2006, 07:20 PM

Actually, as strange as it sounds, I don't really want to be in the driver seat pushing the action. I'm fairly sure I have him beat on the flop (hence my 75%) and want to extract maximum value out of this hand and want him to continue to lead on the turn. I was just debating whether it was worth it to risk a scare card on the turn. With a lesser hand (TT, 99, 88) I would have been more aggressive on the flop because so many cards hurt me plus to get a cheap showdown.

In the hand, the turn card was a K, BB bet, I raised, and he thought for a while and folded. So who knows whether he had me beat or I had him beat on the flop, but the goal was to take the line of play that maximized either direction (gain if ahead, minimized loss if behind + max possiblity of getting a Q to fold).

Does this make sense, or is my thinking overly convoluted?

RayT

jetfish · #4 11-17-2006, 08:26 PM

I like how you played it.

thirddan · #5 11-17-2006, 09:25 PM

what about call call call? i also think that there is no way that a Q is folding to a turn raise or ever in this hand (minus an A rolling off)...

Chris Daddy Cool · #6 11-17-2006, 11:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
and I will raise on the flop to represent a better hand and get in the driver's seat.. if he comes over the top you have a better idea what you are up against and you can try to catch a 2 outer for the price of one extra small bet

[/ QUOTE ]

what does this even mean?

Chris Daddy Cool · #7 11-18-2006, 12:00 AM

i would just call-call-call and let him hang himself. raising the turn will never get him to fold a queen, and he may or may not fold a weak pair, and will probably fold air. if you assign the probabilities of these with the weighted range you gave, your EV will be slightly higher by just calling.

Captain R · #8 11-18-2006, 03:20 AM

Well, I actually would want him to fold at some point in this hand if possible. I'd rather have a 100% sure thing at the pot, then give him his 5-outer shot to scoop it (assuming he has a pair).

So I think a raise is in order at some point. JJ is good, but a lot of cards can still potentially hurt me. If the board was paired (decreasing liklihood of my 2 pair getting outdrawn) or I had a bigger overpair or something, then I might "slowplay it" a little more.

The weaker my pocket pair, the stronger I tend to play it on the flop heads-up because more cards can hurt you. JJ is sort of a borderline hand (not big, not small) in this scenario, and the Q on the flop kind of throws an extra dimension to it.

surfdoc · #9 11-18-2006, 03:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I actually would want him to fold at some point in this hand if possible. I'd rather have a 100% sure thing at the pot, then give him his 5-outer shot to scoop it (assuming he has a pair).

So I think a raise is in order at some point. JJ is good, but a lot of cards can still potentially hurt me. If the board was paired (decreasing liklihood of my 2 pair getting outdrawn) or I had a bigger overpair or something, then I might "slowplay it" a little more.

The weaker my pocket pair, the stronger I tend to play it on the flop heads-up because more cards can hurt you. JJ is sort of a borderline hand (not big, not small) in this scenario, and the Q on the flop kind of throws an extra dimension to it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you need to listen to what Chris is saying. Lets say you raise the turn and he has a 5 outer. Given the choice, would you rather him call or fold?

Captain R · #10 11-18-2006, 03:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think you need to listen to what Chris is saying. Lets say you raise the turn and he has a 5 outer. Given the choice, would you rather him call or fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, this is an interesting question I thought I knew the answer to, but maybe isn't so straightforward.

Assuming villian will bet any river and I call any river, I am giving him a 5/45 (2 Js in the deck do not beat me) chance to beat me. On the turn there are 5.25 BB in the pot if I just call.

If I lose one more BB on the river to his 5-outer, I risk 6.25 BB 1/9 times. Which is about -0.7 BB on average.

If I just call, I win 1 more BB 8/9 of the time. Which is about +0.88 BB on average.

So I guess you're right, it's slightly better EV overall to just call and give him his shot at his 5-outer. I had always assumed 100% of size pot is infinitely better than giving an opponent a small % shot at beating you.

If you factor in that he may fold a Q on the turn to a scare card and that a river scare card like an A will force me to check-check, the difference in gain/loss may make this no longer straightforward. I basically have reverse implied-odds on the turn.

Interesting.