AQo, river play

[kidcolin]

I make my triumphant return to the tables, after around 6-7 weeks without playing. No particular reason. Just didn't feel like it.

Villian in this hand was pretty bad. I forget his stats. Like 50/5/.8 or some crap. His turn c/r means he's got me beat, but I had enough outs.

River good? I'm folding to a 3-bet all day.

Party Poker 5.00/10.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(4 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.40 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (3.20 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (7.20 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises..</font>

[Ineedaride2]

Good.

[Nick C]

Hmm. Well, okay, if you were beat on the turn, then here are some combos:

K9 = 16
98 = 16
22 = 3

QJ = 6
QT = 6
JT = 9

I'll be generous and add these:

Q2 = 6
J2 = 9
T2 = 9

But surely we should discount those hands, and I don't think we should completely rule out AK just because of the lack of a preflop 3-bet.

I'm just calling on the river.

[Pog0]

I don't think you should be discounting any of those hands. VPIP 50 and he's in the big blind. He's playing at least 80% of his cards, that includes anything with a face, and heck, a ten is probably high enough too.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you should be discounting any of those hands. VPIP 50 and he's in the big blind. He's playing at least 80% of his cards, that includes anything with a face, and heck, a ten is probably high enough too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, okay. I'm just supplying math. There are 45 combinations that we were losing to on the turn that we now beat.

We still don't beat 98/K9/22, which is 35 combinations. Toss in AK and we're up to 43 combinations. Add in QQ/JJ/TT, and we've reached 50 combinations.

Based on the assumptions that (1) Villain will defend with any two, (2) Villain will always 3-bet AK/QQ/JJ/TT preflop, (3) we were behind on the turn, (4) Villain will always call our river raise when we have him beat, and (5) Villain will never 3-bet a worse hand, the river raise is worth a whopping 0.125 BB. (Edit: Okay, I should add in another assumption, which is that Villain will never fold a better hand. If he will sometimes fold, say, 98, then that helps the expectation on our play a lot.)

If he 3-bets a worse hand just one time out of 45 that he holds one, we're now losing money on our play.

Based on the assumptions I'm working with, one way of looking at it is that we're risking 10 BBs for the sake of winning 0.125 BB. (10 BBs is how much our play costs us if Villain always has a worse hand and [/i]always[/i] 3-bets it. Obviously, this is a ridiculous assumption, but it does help illustrate how much we can theoretically be costing ourselves with this river play if our judgment is off.)

[mtgordon]

:grunch:

looks good although I might wuss out and just call the river. I probably need to do more r/f like this.

[Nick C]

If you think you have some folding equity (that is, Villain will sometimes fold 98), then the play starts looking good.

If he's never folding a better hand, then I think there's not enough value in the raise.

[Nick C]

By the way, another consideration in this hand is what Villain's willingness to bet into that river card means.

I wasn't at the table and don't have an answer to this question, but it is something to take into account.

[Roy6]

[ QUOTE ]
If you think you have some folding equity (that is, Villain will sometimes fold 98), then the play starts looking good.

If he's never folding a better hand, then I think there's not enough value in the raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

He'll never ever fold 98 for one bet.

[Nick C]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you think you have some folding equity (that is, Villain will sometimes fold 98), then the play starts looking good.

If he's never folding a better hand, then I think there's not enough value in the raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

He'll never ever fold 98 for one bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

If that's true, then I think a river raise-fold risks too much for too little potential reward and is -EV.

We have to have so much control over Villain for this raise-fold to be a good idea. If he's never folding a better hand, then he has to do pretty much exactly what we expect him to, every time he responds to our river raise, to get value out of this.