50NL: When AQ can only be behind

[gir]

I know he has me beat, I have no regrets about that. Either AK, AQ, AT, A9 or a flush. My question is, how large a river bet is too large a river bet to call? If he bet $6, I'm calling. But mathematically, how much can I call profitably?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($52.50)
UTG ($80.65)
MP ($51.60)
CO ($18.30)
Button ($55.65)
SB ($24.70)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG calls $0.50, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls $0.50, SB (poster) completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $3</font>, UTG folds, Button folds, SB calls $3.

Flop: ($8) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $5</font>, SB calls $5.

Turn: ($18) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($18) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB calls $24.45 (All-In), Hero folds.

Final Pot: $42.45

[jk1986]

Yeah I play the same - include TT and 99 in his range here for sure

[SykoraG]

It's definately a strange donk bet. How do you know he has you beat, because I don't (no reads on villain ... but I'm guessing that you're giving him credit). As played I fold the river against an unknown. I would also prob call anything under 11 dollars.

[iamVillaiNmo]

Fold

[jk1986]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold

[/ QUOTE ]
Good post, I dig your reasoning here

[iamVillaiNmo]

I dont risk it. Not enough for me to care. I just fold if i know nothing of the villain.

[Sir Winalot]

I'd raise bigger preflop because we're going to be oop and pot the flop so that I can shove turn.

As played, the turn card wasn't the prittiest but I'm probably felting this anyway against a shortie, so v-bet turn. Stack sizes are a little awkward because of your weak flop bet so I'm not sure what to do on the turn. I think we have two options here: shove or v-bet 12ish and get the rest in on the river. I'd say 12 is better to not scare him off.

As played, I'd call the river. In my experience an open shove from a shortie after I've shown weaknes is a weaker Ax or a pure bluff way too often for me to fold this. I agree that this isn't the most perfect board for this because we're losing to AT and A9 and flushes which could also play like this.

[keikiwai]

looks good, the only thing is vs. a shorty i make a bigger flop bet so i can get it all-in easier..... but after that turn and the river donk a fold is fine....

villain will often have the flush and is trying to make up for a missed turn c-r, and even when he doesn't he will often enough be able to beat AQ... usually w/ a 2p

[kazana]

I wouldn't be surprised if you folded the best hand here at all. As played, I'd fold it, too. But I'm a nit.
I agree with Sir WinAlot, that that open push from a shorty after your turn check is a pure bluff or weak Ace/strong Ten very often, but I don't really want to pay that much to find out.

On that flop, HU vs a shorty, I prefer to overbet. $10-$12 will do. Make it clear to him, that he's playing for his miserable stack.
Often, shorty will think you're pushing him around and you will get a push out of him with a losing Ace very often. If he flatcalls my stack goes in on any turn card.