Another hand with crazy people (LO8)

TMTTR · #1 11-28-2006, 03:58 PM

15/30 live -- five handed.

Hero is BB with 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

All players are nuts and certainly don't need the nuts to get aggressive. We have been playing for over 12 hours.

UTG limps, CO limps, Button limps, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop (5SB): 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

SB checks, hero checks, UTG checks, Cutoff bets, Button calls, SB folds, hero calls, UTG calls.

Turn (4.5BB): J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Hero checks, UTG bets, cutoff raises, button 3-bets!?!, hero folds.

No way to play on here -- even shorthanded against the most aggressive idiots -- correct?

Yo'Maha · #2 11-28-2006, 04:15 PM

Easy Fold......Nice draw at a tight to semi-tight table, but wait for the nuts to at least one way with these players.........and you don't have it here.

fishyak · #3 11-28-2006, 05:31 PM

Outs - wow - I do not have enough fingers and toes. 4 A's for the nut low. 9 clubs - 7 for no board pair. 9 diamonds, 7 for no board pair. That's 22 cards that help out of a remaining 44! Best made high hand is a straight w/ KQ on top, so any flush is an improvement over any existing made hand. But it is 3 BB and maybe 4 BB to see a pot of approx. 15-21 BB's depending on how many stay the course if you stay in.

You have been playing these guys for 12 hrs. How nutty have they been in the last hour? The 3 bet looks like KQ hoping to do what he did, knock you out. 4 bets to get a shot at low for 1/2 (possibility of being quartered remains) and two flush shots which could be good unless the straights being bet also could upgrade to flushes better than yours.

I think your pot equity runs about 25% but even if you hit your flush you could be beat.

I am relatively new to Omaha and just enjoyed reviewing and talking out loud about this hand. I hope I have shown a closer case for calling than you might expect, but you do wind up OOP in a hand that can get squeezed even further on the river even if one of your almost 50% hits come in. I think its close, but I fold as well. Too rich for my blood. This kind of hand is a potential stack killer.

Yo'Maha · #4 11-28-2006, 06:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This kind of hand is a potential stack killer.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems to be a common theme amongst great drawing hands in O/8. Lots of outs, but no hand spells trouble.

The math buffs will tell you that the long-term statistics say it's +EV so go for it, but I don't buy the long-term stats, as each situation is subject to the specific hand at play and really stands on it's own. I am of the opinion that there are too many players out there who count outs in O/8 and make calls and huge raises at pots based on pot odds or outs calculations alone. That really tends to invite variance and increase the "suck-out" factor. But they can justify it by saying "it was +EV, so it was just a bad beat". I try to stay away from those situations by ditching these hands pronto. "stack killers lurk everywhere in O/8". It's really all about avoiding them and staying solid. .....in my opinion of course [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

T50_Omaha8 · #5 11-28-2006, 06:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
But they can justify it by saying "it was +EV, so it was just a bad beat". I try to stay away from those situations by ditching these hands pronto.

[/ QUOTE ]

So your strategy is to lay down hands with a positive expected value? To each his own I suppose...

Yo'Maha · #6 11-28-2006, 06:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
each situation is subject to the specific hand at play and really stands on it's own.

[/ QUOTE ]

Read the whole post. Lol.

My strategy is to not simply call any hand with +EV for the simple fact that it has +EV. Each situation must be vetted individually considering all factors.

fishyak · #7 11-28-2006, 07:03 PM

Here you wind up OOP and tired after a long session. I've tended to regret my overaggressive plays late in a long session. Absent some infomation about my opposition that they are on tilt or overplaying a "last hand", there are times when small a EV+ is not enough to run the risk to your stack.

Is this a hand stack killer for you? Is it a knockout punch for your being able to stay in the game and play well? EV does NOT consider those real life issues. To me, it's OK to pass on some close but LARGE calls; spectate and retreat to be able to fight another day (hand). Real life poker, particularly live, is LARGER than EV+ alone, IMO.

TMTTR · #8 11-28-2006, 07:55 PM

To answer one major question: These guys are definitely overplaying hands. Multiple bets on draws (or to apply pressure) are certainly possible. The only players close to rational at this point are the SB (already folded) and Hero (I hope). It is not clear there is even a made straight here.

HOWEVER, while there are plenty of potential outs, the only definite out is likely to half (or possibly a quarter) of the pot (4 Aces). All other outs are to non-nut hands... either of my flush draws or my straight draw (or my non-nut low draw or my trips draw or my two pair draw) could be good... but how many bets to put in and if I hit any of my non-nut outs, how many bets do I make/call on the river?

TMTTR · #9 11-28-2006, 08:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Best made high hand is a straight w/ KQ on top

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, QT for a Q high straight is best made high hand here -- not that it makes a difference. If I was up against only one player with a QT and no better flush draw/low draw, a call would be a no brainer. Against three players for multiple bets -- how do you ever know you are good? Given the number of outs and the amount of money being put in the pot, do you ever need certainty that you are good on the river?

ericicecream · #10 11-28-2006, 08:42 PM

Yeah, lots of outs, but the problem I think lies on what to do if you catch one of your 2-way outs. Say the 6 of clubs comes off, can you even feel safe to bet out here? And what do you do when you check (or bet out) and it comes back multiple bets to you.

It seems too easy to be outplayed on any of your river outs except one of the 2 suited aces. Isn't this exactly the situations to avoid that make good omaha players good omaha players?